Geriatric Terror? (and a bunch of other stuff!)

Throwback Thursday and a Veeply Round-up

Dear readers, it’s getting a bit late to post a Throwback Thursday, but I had to go into my office for may day job (yes I have one) on Wednesday. Now I am enjoying the long weekend by visiting NYC (I spent much of the afternoon at the amazing Cooper-Hewitt Museum.)

Also, there is new material on the way:

• Early next week, I’ll be posting an overdue look at Colombia’s Vice President Francia Marquez Márquez Mina—a world renowned environmental activist—who appears to have been sidelined by the mercurial Colombian President Gustavo Petro

• Coming soon I’ll be sharing some thoughts on my PhD advisor, the late I.M. “Mac” Destler. Mac was a leader in the study of both trade politics and national security process (the latter was my area of focus), as well as a great teacher and all-round person. I miss him terribly and would love to be discussing the current chaos with him.

• But I also need to write on Vance’s rising status within the Trump administration. I discuss it a bit below, but this needs an in-depth investigation. Previously, I thought Vance would have little influence, but – as I’ve mentioned before – the VP, and his staff, have been engaged at a high-level and he’s been given critical assignments.

Today’s Throwback Thursday is from my distant archives, but all too relevant.¹ It’s about a group of senior citizens busted for plotting a terrorist attack over waffles. Not clear how serious they were, but I started keeping any eye on terror plots and attacks committed by older people. There were more than a few. The 2009 attack on the Holocaust Museum in DC was perpetrated by an 88 year old. The gunman who targeted the Congressional softball game in 2017 was 66. The 2017 Las Vegas mass shooting was by a 64 year old. We recently we saw a middle-aged fanatic (57) murder a Minnesota state lawmaker (and her husband) and wound another state legislator (and his wife). I did some casual research and learned that the brain’s limbic system, which regulates emotions and behavior, decays over the course of one’s life. A stressful life with poor nutrition and health, along with substance abuse, can accelerate this decay. Terrorism is usually carried out by young men, who have limbic systems that aren’t fully mature. We may be dealing with older people who have brains not dissimilar to young men, and therefore more prone to impusive decision-making.

In my last post on the fault-lines opened by the attack on Iran, I stated that if this war goes badly it will redound back into the U.S. in some dark ways. More political violence is one of them.

But first, it’s your…

Veeply Roundup

Let’s start with VP Vance, who kept a low profile in the Trump-Musk fallout, but appears to have been an emissary. Most recently, he and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles called Musk to create a ceasefire. A few quick takeaways. First, Susie Wiles is a critical figure in the Trump White House. We don’t hear much about her, but that means she is good at her job. Both Musk and Waltz annoyed her and are gone. Musk’s departure from the White House scene is probably a win for Vance, one less outsized personality sucking the oxygen out of the room. This episode highlights that Vance may not be the top advisor, but he is at least in the mix. Vance’s own Silicon Valley connections probably helped him as the liaison, and that may be a role that only grows. Vance, by the way, is the Finance Chair for the Republican National Committee, so those connections will remain valuable. (In that role, he also visited Rupert Murdoch and his crown prince Lachlan in Montana.)

Vance is also apparently a voice inside the administration pushing against a strike on Iran. Also in foreign affairs he and Rubio appear to be working hard to stay on the same page. They are natural rivals, but so far are avoiding that trap both by coordinating with one another and being fiercely loyal to Trump.

With a dog and children, this is the perfect Second Spouse picture—nothing remotely offensive or controversial. It’s an official White House photo from Camp VPR, the kick-off of the Second Lady’s Summer Reading Challenge. A perfect Second Spouse project.

Meanwhile, after an unfortunate first foray into international diplomacy, Usha Vance has found a perfect uncontroversial issue befitting the Second Spouse, children’s literacy. She initiated her summer reading program with Camp VPR (for Vice President’s Residence.) Children came for a day of fun at One Observatory Circle and left with a book. The Vance’s got adorable pics with children. We’ve monitored the modest growth of the Second Spouse role, which picked up with Doug Emhoff, who did take on somewhat substantial tasks. Given the controversy surrounding this administration and Usha Vance’s own carefully crafted bland demeanor, the Second Spouse role may be lower profile in this administration. None of this is to underplay Usha Vance’s own obviously formidable talents, it just isn’t a great time for her.

Around the world, some interesting VP stuff.

In the Philippines, the trial of Vice President Sara Duterte for threatening to assassinate President Marcos along with corruption (of course) is scheduled to begin in July. We’ll do a full post when things heat up. But there’s some odd legal wrangling about whether the impeachment is valid. Marcos, who was behind the impeachment, saw his supporters lose seats and Duterte gain seats in the midterm elections and is now much less confident about impeachment. Duterte wants to run for president in 2028. Conviction will ban her from public office, but she could step down as VP to avoid the trial. Still developing.

In Argentina former Vice President Christina Kirchner has been convicted. Given her age, she will probably be under house arrest, which may not stop her from being the power behind the throne of the Peronistas. There is a lot going on here. Kirchner, who will certainly be the subject of a future post, was First Lady, then President, and then Vice President. She’s been at the center of Argentina’s powerful Peronista movement, and therefore the country’s politics, for almost 20 years. She was also subject to an assassination attempt—as I’ve discussed before, assassination attempts on VPs are very unusual. The First Lady to politics path is well-trod in Argentina, starting most notably with Eva Peron—who angled for the vice presidency but was thwarted by the military and died from cancer not long after. Peron’s second wife Isabel (a former nightclub singer), also became VP and then President on his death. The Argentine vice presidency does not appear to be much of an inherent power center, but Kirchner was reportedly the power behind the throne during her vice presidency. (Worth a post in its own right.)

Geriatric Terror?

• November 3, 2011

A quartet of senior citizens in Georgia (the state) were recently arrested for plotting massive terror attacks. They were pseudo-militia types, concerned about the expansion of the US government into a tyranny and inspired by Tim McVeigh. They had a bucket-list of officials they hoped to target.

In some regards they followed the typical profile for far-right terror in the US -that is expansive and violent goals – with limited capability. By comparison leftist terrorists in the US (say ALF/ELF) tend to be well educated, disciplined, and focused in their targeting and operations. As one analyst who has studied domestic terrorists, the rightwingers are dumb but unstable and violent.

The prospects for their plots’ success, including making a WMD from ricin (which has proven pretty much undoable even for nation states), were very low. The FBI spent months infiltrating their meetings at the Waffle House and their homes. One is forced it wonder exactly how the FBI came to be aware of this cell of geezers.

Overall, terrorism appears to be a young man’s game. The leaders may be older, but the actual operatives tend to be young. There is no obvious reason for this (unless the plan is specifically for fedayeen attacks). Elderly operatives should be less suspicious when reconnoitering targets or planting explosives. But there are few cases of this occurring.

The image of an angry young men spouting nihilistic radicalism is common, and even a bit sympathetic. The same anger coming from someone forty years older seems only pathetic.

1. Before I was a Veepologist, I was a Terrorwonk.