From the Veep's Mouth
Does JD Vance believe what he says? Does it matter?
VP Vance is clearly going through some stuff right now. Some good, he’s a new dad and has a book out (plus the chicken coop). But also not such good stuff, his position as likely GOP nominee in 2028 is not solid. In Marco Rubio, there is an obvious alternative and Trump keeps playing the two against one another. (I’d still bet on Vance being the nominee if he runs—the last sitting VP to run for the nomination and not get it was back in 1952.)
Meanwhile, the GOP is increasingly unpopular and the Trump coalition is fracturing, splits that further undermine Vance’s position. It must be a source of huge frustration for Vance that on two of the big issues roiling the Trump coalition, the Iran war (which Vance opposed) and the Epstein files (which Vance wanted released), Vance was probably right, but his advice went unheeded. Vance also has to go out to the public and support these positions and even, in the case of Iran negotiations, try to clean up the mess. Such is life for a vice president.
But the VP is also saying a lot of weird shit.
From the Mouth of the Veep
Vance is doing a lot of media to promote his book,1 and saying strange stuff. My personal favorite example is how, in his White House press conference Vance said:
I have seen some progressive criticisms of me personally saying what experience does the vice president of the United States have with hostile high stakes negotiations and I would point those progressive critics to the fact that just two days ago I spent over an hour on The View. So I actually have great experience in very hostile negotiations, and I’ve used that. I mean look Joy Behar is way tougher than the Iranians and she and I are best friends now.
The joke didn’t land in the White House briefing room. It echoes a joke Vance made at the Munich Security Conference in 2025 when he told the Europeans:
And trust me, I say this with all humor, if American democracy can survive 10 years of Greta Thunberg’s scolding, you guys can survive a few months of Elon Musk.
Jokes are an important marker of how people see the world. These jokes equate outspoken women with powerful and dangerous men—so now we know what these guys are truly afraid of. For MAGA, all issues are gender issues.
But there are so many more examples of Vance weirdness.
Promoting his book at the Nixon Library, Vance said Watergate would have been “like a 12-hour news story” if it happened today. I suppose this is true, given the sheer volume of the current administration’s misdeeds.2 Vance blamed Nixon’s downfall on “the deep state” and compared himself to Nixon. Usually presidents want to be linked to the most popular president in living memory, not the least popular. But you do you JD!
Vance has gone on about extraterrestrials and demons.
Vance is saying things to appeal to his base in preparation for 2028. His recent interview on Joe Rogan’s podcast3 was the epitome of these awkward efforts. He revisited the discussion on aliens and demons and talked about how Biden looked creepy eating ice cream. For good measure, Vance stated that Epstein may have been responsible for wokeness in academia and that Epstein was plugged into the Mossad. The late Robert Maxwell, British media magnate and father to Epstein’s girlfriend Ghislaine, was also rumored to have Mossad connections.
One wonders what Vance’s former chief of staff, Jacob Reses would say? Reses is an observant Jew who was also all in on Vance’s Christian nationalism. He left his position recently on the birth of a child.
Does Vance Believe What He Says?
The mystery with Vance is: does he believe this shit? He’s not 100% cynical nor a 100% true believer, but which way does he trend and is it a strong trend or a weak one? And does it really matter?
Vance trashed Trump, called him America’s Hitler, and then wooed him to become his vice president. That’s a big point for cynicism. There’s also Vance’s readiness to support Trump endeavors which go against everything he has said he stands for, like foreign military adventures. Vance appears all too ready to pander to the audience, whether it is the conspiracy-minded young men listening to Rogan or Orange County Republican grandees at the Nixon Library. That explains some of Vance’s verbal effluvia.
But there is a real strangeness to Vance. He argues Catholic doctrine with the Pope—with the Pope! In his railing about threats to European and American culture or his worries about the decline in birth rates, Vance seems to see the world in terms of epic clashes between mystical forces. He is in the orbit of the bizarre tech magnate Peter Thiel, who keeps talking about the antiChrist. The literature that influenced Vance (and many Silicon Valley types) is Lord of the Rings (LOTR).4 This points to a worldview of being among the knowing few who must save the world from the rising darkness. Vance’s own personal journey, which started in a dysfunctional working class family in middle America and took him—extremely rapidly—to the vice presidency might lead him to believe he is Frodo or Harry Potter or Luke Skywalker. That makes Peter Thiel Obi-Wan, Gandalf, or Dumbledore. If you reverse the alignments though, Vance is Damien in The Omen.
There is direct evidence that Vance is a true believer. He has admitted a bend towards the conspiratorial. Others have noted it as well. In Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan write that after his good friend Charlie Kirk was murdered, Vance went down a bunch of internet conspiracy rabbit holes. His wife was worried about him. Perhaps most damning is White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, in an on-the-record interview with Vanity Fair, describing Vance as “a conspiracy theorist for a decade.”
Vance, like all political figures, has to be a bit cynical. But deep down, I think he is a true believer.
Does it matter?
A cynical Vance will be pivot when political winds shift, whereas a true-believer Vance might be more dangerous as he tries to instantiate his world view. We really don’t need politicians living out their Jungian vision quests in office. But maybe it doesn’t matter too much.
Trump is a sickly old man and Vance could be president sooner than expected. Despite what I’ve written, a President Vance would be an improvement over Trump. First, whatever his world view, Vance is not erratic. He will consider risks and benefits and think through decisions. Second, Vance isn’t Trump. Even if Vance believes in and seeks to advance his grand visions, he will find it tough going. Republicans in Congress will not fear Vance the way they fear Trump. He will not inspire loyalty among the base. The decline of Charlie Kirk’s TPUSA since his murder is a harbinger. Erika Kirk, his wife and successor at TPUSA, simply doesn’t have the charisma needed to maintain and advance the organization. That will be Vance, trying to lead the GOP after Trump.
In 2016 I wrote something sadly prescient about Trump. Ted Cruz was still in the primaries and I wrote that I would support Cruz over Trump because:
My fear with Trump is that if frustrated with Congress, he will summon a mob….
Do I believe that Cruz is a secret insider who will turn establishment where Trump will not? Hardly, rather I think he will suck at trying to upend the system. His appeals for action will be less effective.
In that sense, Vance is preferable to Trump. Vance may very well call a mob, but unlike Trump, the mob won’t come.
Love him or hate him, Vance is an extraordinary man. But Trump is a force of nature. The former can be managed, the latter brings destruction and chaos.
I haven’t read the new book Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith. This review made me laugh out loud. Here’s another review that takes on the ideas Vance attempts to espouse. I’m only reading Hillbilly Elegy now (my takeaway so far is that his accounts of his abuse as a child are harrowing). I’m hoping to review both at some point. I think I’ll also do a post on VPs as writers. There are more than you might think!
When Trump first emerged on the national political scene, I called him the false Reagan. But now he seems more like stupid Nixon. I’ll revisit this in an upcoming post.
I knew Joe Rogan back in the day—just a little. We were both doing stand-up in Boston in the late 1980s. He came enormously successful, and you could kind of see why. Me, obviously, not so much. I’ll write about that sometime soon. But FYI, I wasn’t that bad. I had about 15 minutes of decent material, my timing and stage presence were pretty good. The experience made me a strong public speaker. And I’m available: weddings, bar mitzvahs, corporate events, think tank panels…
Peter Thiel’s companies all have names from the LOTR: Palantir, Anduril, Mithril, Narya.
Great post. Vance reminds me a bit of the Prince of Darkness himself Richard Nixon. Both came from pretty difficult childhoods (I remember reading one review of Hillbilly that said the book was basically just a memoir of unaddressed childhood trauma, reminds me of reading about Dick and his dad and brother...) both served as rear echelon guys in the military, went to a good law school, and excelled at sucking up sinister rich guys earlier in their careers (committee of the 100 etc).
But the analogy only gets you so far. Nixon, whatever you think of him, really did have to fight his way up in Congress, while Vance was basically handed his race in Ohio on a silver platter and under performed. Nixon was also an intensely cerebral man with Calvinist work ethic (18 hour plus days where not unheard of), but I've never heard Vance say anything particular insightful, a lot of it is just culture war schlock and goofy conspiracy theories. Nor does Vance seem to be working very hard, just spending a lot of time on planes flying to Iran and then either turning around mid flight or failing to seal the deal.