Why was VP Vance Absent for Venezuela?
And some notes on the anniversary of January 6
In the pictures from the informal situation room at White House South, the vice president is clearly absent, although he joined by the super-secret version of Zoom used by our national security establishment.
Was JD Vance not there to distance himself from a foreign adventure that is anathema to his America First base?
Or did Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio shiv the VP to raise his own profile in MAGA/Trump world?
Both of these explanations are fun to consider, but the the official explanation has merit. Vance was in Florida, but not at Mar-a-Lago. A late night motorcade moving Vance to join the decision-makers in person might have tipped off observers that something was up. This is not an absurd concern. The Cuba regime may be failing, but it is really really good at intelligence. And if there is one place in the world that they are certain to have covered, it would have to be South Florida.
It turns out there is precedent for key decision-makers remaining in place during major operations to avoid giving notice. One of the most prominent examples resonates with the Venezuela operation.
Operation Urgent Fury
In October 1983 a radical faction of the ruling party of Grenada executed the Prime Minister. This faction was close to Fidel Castro, Cuba was helping to build a major airfield on the island. The prime minister of nearby Dominica was worried violence would spread to other Caribbean nations and asked the U.S. to intervene. Besides the alignment with Cuba, there were hundreds of Americans at a medical school in Grenada and there was concern about a hostage crisis.
When all of this was going down, President Reagan, Secretary of State Schultz, and National Security Advisor Bud McFarlane were golfing in Augusta, Georgia. Vice President Bush, at the White House, took the initial call from the Prime Minister of Dominica, and convened the crisis management team (which the VP chaired) to examine options for response. Bush briefed Reagan, who approved of invading Grenada. Bush coordinated the operation from the Situation Room—while Reagan and his team remained in Augusta as planned so as not to alert anyone that there was an operation.
The U.S. quickly cobbled together security personnel from other Caribbean nations to accompany U.S. forces so that it was a multilateral operation. Bush had recommended to Reagan that they include Venezuela so that this multi-lateral force was not entirely English-speaking and more fully represented the region. Reagan, concerned about delays, decided not to reach out to Venezuela.
The Grenada operation was a success, but required far more U.S. effort and had many more mistakes than the Venezuela mission. The U.S. has gotten very very good at dramatic special operations, but they have very specific uses. In a major conventional war, special operations capabilities might be helpful, but they are no substitute for regular forces. A question worth asking is whether emphasizing these capabilities distracts from maintaining the capabilities needed for a large-scale conventional war.
Vance’s Status
There are other reasons that Vance being cut out is unlikely. By all accounts the VP has a good working relationship with Rubio, has regularly been part of the administration’s highest councils, and (most importantly) Rubio’s deputy came from Vance’s office. On social media, Vance has been a vociferous defender of the operation.
The fact that the VP can only be moved in a huge motorcade highlights my questions about the Divine Presidency in which we impute such power to the president—and therefore to the vice president—that no effort can ever be spared to protect them.
Given that Vance’s personal home in Cincinnati was vandalized in this timeframe, I readily acknowledge that some security for our nation’s top leaders is absolutely necessary. Also, political violence in a democracy—regardless of the cause of the perpetrator—is wrong and will only make things worse.
Speaking of which…
Remembering January 6
Five years ago today a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol and sought to overturn an election. This was a terrible moment for our country (which sadly I had predicted in 2016.) For timely reporting, follow the excellent Jen Golbeck who will be observing the Capitol Hill rally by January 6 participants.
I will make two observations.
First, while attempts on the lives of presidents are often carried out by clearly disturbed individuals, attempts on the lives of vice presidents are carried out with fairly clear political objectives. As I noted above, turning to political violence is never a good sign.1
Second, January 6 was focused on the formal powers of the vice presidency. These powers are extremely limited and mostly pro forma. My study of the vice presidency is focused on how the VP’s activities and standing can illuminate political decision-making. My thought on the formal powers of the vice presidency is:
When people are deep believers in this sort of magic, they are in a place of desperation. Things are breaking down…. The insurrectionist belief that this minor, ceremonial function of the vice president was somehow powerful is a similar kind of belief in magic… All of this is to say that when, as a nation (not me personally), we talk a lot about vice presidents, it is because our polity is not in a good place.
Nonetheless, I remain hopeful.
January 6 was the only attempt on a VP’s life inspired by the president.