Vance Dances as Lt. Governors Run
Veeply Roundup
This Veeply Round-up we focus on the busy busy Lieutenant Governors running for offices. Several of these Lt. Governors deserve (and will get) posts of their own. We also go into a little depth on the strange maneuvers around the Lt. Governor in Florida and the surprisingly high-profile race for Lt. Governor of Virginia.
But we open with an important story on Vance. He actually does a little policy-making—and that’s the thing that most interests Veepologists.
I received a lot of positive feedback on my review of VP Harris’ memoir 107 Days. But the week before, I had posted an analysis based on the excerpts. My take on PA Governor, and potential running mate, Josh Shapiro wasn’t quite right, so we finish up with an update.
Without further ado… here’s your Veeply Roundup!
Vance and ByteDance
Unlike 107 Days, this newsletter is not a diary of vice-presidential doings. Vance does and says a lot of stuff. Most of it isn’t that interesting. In the U.S., the vice president’s job is to support the president. That means regurgitating the president’s message. That’s mostly what Vance does. This isn’t a criticism. It’s the job. His predecessors did the same. Also, fundraisers and funerals.
Tracking vice presidential activity is a worthy aspect of Veepology. Some other Veepologist can do it—I look forward to the rise of quantitative veepology. It’s not my jam. I’m interested in influence and decision-making.
Sometimes the vice president delivers a particularly important message, that’s interesting. When the VP helps shape policy, either by influencing the decision or overseeing implementation, that’s interesting.
It looks like we have such a case before us; Vance has reportedly played a key role in the administration’s recent successful negotiations over TikTok with its owner ByteDance and their masters in the Chinese government. The linked article has the details, but Trump wanted a deal that kept TikTok available to Americans, while addressing security concerns. Congress passed legislation that required an American owned spinoff of TikTok for the app to remain available. Vance spearheaded several extensions of the Congressionally imposed deadline.
As a bonus, the spin-off will be owned by Trump allies, including centi-billionaire Larry Ellison of Oracle. It also further solidified the Trump administration’s approach to “industrial policy;” that is playing a direct role in corporate deal-making.
Vance, who had worked in Silicon Valley, was central to all of this. He talked to CEOs, he worked with other members of the administration on negotiating strategies, and he brainstormed ways to address concerns about TikTok being used by the Chinese government for data collection and influence operations in the U.S.1 Finally, when it appeared the Chinese negotiators were stalling, Vance pushed for an ultimatum to the Chinese—reach an agreement or TikTok goes dark immediately.
Unsurprisingly, Trump approved that negotiating ploy and was impressed when it worked.
This will raise Vance’s stock with Trump, who admires dealmakers. The fact that all of these administration officials worked with Vance, including the ambassador to China, the Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce, and the U.S. Trade Representative, also highlights that Vance is perceived as influential and valued by the president. Otherwise, why would they have cooperated?
Busy Lieutenant Governors Running
All across the country, Lieutenant Governors are running for things.
California’s Lt. Governor Kounalikis is running to be state treasurer, a much more significant office, after her bid for governor went bust. Current governor Gavin Newsom made the leap to the top office from Lt. Governor, but overall California’s number two is a weak office.
The Lt. Governor of Illinois, Julianna Stratton, is running for the Senate. There’s a bunch of other candidates, so even though she has Pritzker’s endorsement, she isn’t a shoe-in. Governor Pritzker is running for a third term (and maybe something else). He’s just selected a new running mate, Christian Mitchell, who had been a member of his cabinet.
In Georgia there are two Lt. Governors running for governor! The current Lt. Governor Burt Jones, who is portraying himself as a successor to the popular Governor Brian Kemp is running for the GOP nomination. But former GOP Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan has become a Democrat and is running for the Democratic nomination. But both fields are crowded.
The Lt. Governor of Michigan, Garlin Gilchrist, is running to be governor—but he’s so interesting, he’ll get his own post in the near future.
There are a pair of Lt. Governor situations that are particularly interesting.
There’s a whole Game of Thrones thing going on with the Lieutenant Governor of Florida, that’s also worth a post of its own. The position itself is pretty powerless, but term-limited governor Ron DeSantis is trying to get pieces in place before he goes. His Lt. Governor, Jeanette Nuñez resigned to become president of Florida International University (a job that pays about 6x what Lt. Gov. pays). He appointed a new Lt. Governor, Jay Collins, who might run for governor, possibly with Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis as his running mate. That’s probably the only way he’d have a chance, since Trump ally U.S. Representative Byron Donalds has raised over $30 million for his own race for governor.
In Virginia the GOP Lt. Governor is running for governor. VA and New Jersey are the only states holding big elections in 2025, so lots of people are watching these elections closely to monitor political trends—and there’s a lot of money going into these races. Right now, according to the finest polling from Emerson College2, Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earl-Sears is running well behind the Democratic nominee, U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger. (Other polls show the election as much closer.) Virginia has a lot of federal employees (and contractors.) The state is being hit hard by the current shutdown, the question is will they blame Democrats or Republicans, and will that affect the races in Virginia.
In Virginia, the Governor and Lt. Governor are elected separately, and the Lt. Governor’s race is interesting. The state Senate is closely divided, with 21 Democrats and 19 Republicans. The elections may change that, but it’s also possible the Lt. Governor could be a critical tiebreaker. The Democratic candidate, state Senator Ghazala Hashmi, would be the first Muslim-American to hold statewide office and has raised a lot of money. The GOP candidate, conservative radio host and businessperson John Reid, hasn’t raised nearly as much money and would be the first openly gay holder of statewide office in Virginia.3 When the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger’s cast her ballot (early voting in Virginia has started), Reid made a surprise appearance in which he sought to echo Spanberger’s call for greater political comity. The crowd wasn’t enthused, but Spanberger was gracious and they parted on a friendly note. The current governor, Glenn Youngkin became governor portraying himself as a business-friendly moderate Republican. In office Youngkin latched onto some MAGA rhetoric, possibly plotting a national campaign. Reid is probably trying to chart a similar course.
Correction on 107 Days analysis: Josh Shapiro is Not Machiavellian
Having read all of Harris’ memoir, 107 Days, there are no great Veepological insights beyond those I gleaned from the excerpts. There was useful details that will inform my academic work on the topic, but nothing deeply revealing. There is one point in which I need to correct the record.
In my original analysis of 107 Days, based on excerpts, I wrote that Shapiro comes off as a Machiavellian figure who both wanted to be seen as under consideration for the VP nominee, but didn’t want to be selected. A full reading of the account of his interview changes that perception. The excerpts implied that he asked Harris about details of the Vice President’s Residence. In fact, the residence manager picked Shapiro up and transported him incognito to meet Harris. During the ride, Shapiro asked about the residence. That might be interpreted as measuring the drapes but could also just be ordinary conversation. Similarly the mishap in which Shapiro’s official vehicle drove by the residence revealing his presence reads like an honest blunder, not an element in a plot.
The core factor remains the same, Shapiro was ambivalent about leaving a job he loved and wanted to be sure that being vice president would work for him. On that basis, Harris’ choice seems prudent since, in her words: “Every day as president, I’ll have ninety-nine problems, and my VP can’t be one.”
On the other hand, internal polls in both Harris and Trump’s campaign showed her losing throughout. Would a dynamic figure like Shapiro—who could probably bring along vote rich Pennsylvania—have made a real difference?4
Also, I stand by my assertion that Shapiro is the best politician in America, or at least the best Democratic politician. That does not of course mean he’ll be successful running for higher office. Competence isn’t the priority of American voters.
Coming Up
Next week we posting might be light, since the Jewish holiday of Sukkot begins (my personal favorite) and I’ll be offline for two days.
Monday we’ll talk about Richard Moe, who just died, and was a seminal figure in the establishment of the modern vice presidency (also he was an interviewee for my dissertation)
For Throwback Thursday, we’ll look at the book of Ecclesiastes, which is read during Sukkot
Veeply Round-up may not happen, but if it does we’ll take a look at some Veep news around the world.
It isn’t clear that the national security concerns about TikTok were adequately addressed in the recent deal.
I’m an alum.
There was a bit of a scandal with Reid and Governor Youngkin tried to push him out of the race. But rank and file Republicans sided with Reid. Whatever else is going on, Reid’s sexual orientation hasn’t been a big issue with the conservative Virginia Republicans.
Probably not, truth be told. But Democratic Senators won elections in a bunch of swing states Harris lost (AZ, MI, NV, and WI.) Those plus PA and we’d have President Harris. But still, probably not.