Vance Advance and Impeachment Archived
Veeply Roundup
Vance being named by Trump as his successor (sort of) is our top story, but not our biggest one. The biggest story is that Vance went kayaking, and what the arrangements for this trip (a process referred to as advance work) say about the status of our top elected leaders.
We’ve also got updates on the Lt. Governor of California, the ongoing impeachment saga in the Philippines—and some previews of upcoming posts.
All this and more in your Veeply Roundup
Vance Anointed?
This Tuesday (August 8), Trump was asked if Vance was his successor and Trump said: “Well, I think mostly likely, in all fairness. He’s the vice president.”
Trump said it was too early to discuss, but that Vance was “doing a great job and he would be probably favorite at this point.”
So there you have it.
Well, not exactly.
Trump mentioned Secretary of State Marco Rubio as another possibility but also said that there were a lot of people doing a great job who could lead MAGA.
If you watch the actual Q&A, the questioner states that Trump could “clear the field” in the GOP primary for 2028 if he just named Vance. Further, the questioner stated that Rubio had stated that Vance was a great person to lead MAGA.
There are several of interesting things here about Trump, about Rubio and Vance, and trends in American history.
First, Trump probably continues to harbor dreams of a third term. It is very unlikely to happen (he doesn’t have the votes to change the Constitution). Second, Trump enjoys playing The Apprentice and having Vance and Rubio compete. Third, it really is too early. Vance has plenty of time to prove himself a dud. One bad photo op or gaffe could do it!
That Rubio cited Vance as the successor is also interesting. Both Vance and Rubio are young and have further ambitions. They are obvious rivals. But there have been no reports of squabbling between them or their respective staffs. The fact that Vance’s national security advisor, Andy Baker, moved to become Rubio’s deputy at the National Security Council suggests comity between the Veep and State. My guess is that the two recognize that infighting would hurt both of them and that cooperation is the wiser path.
Finally, the VP as heir apparent is a new and unusual event in U.S. history. The first two VPs (Adams and Jefferson) went on to become president. But times were different. Then the presidency went to the next person in line among the luminaries of the American Revolution. Adams and Jefferson were political rivals, not allies. When Jefferson established his political regime, the presidency went to Secretaries of State for the next two decades. Only Andrew Jackson specifically designated his VP, Martin Van Buren, as his heir. For more than a century, the vice presidency was moribund. A key factor was that the president did not choose the VP, so they weren’t political allies. Eisenhower gave his blessing to Nixon to succeed him in 1960 (although in 1956 Ike tried to get Nixon off the ticket.) We then had two decades of troubled presidencies without obvious heirs. Reagan did support Bush Sr. as his successor, and Clinton anointed Gore. But this was followed by Cheney, who had no plans to run for president, and Biden, who Obama discouraged from running, favoring Hillary Clinton (a former Secretary of State.) Harris became Biden’s heir apparent by circumstance.
Vance may very well emerge as the MAGA dauphin. But for Trumpy and historic reasons, it is no sure thing.
Problem Solving Veep
Last week I wrote about the VP as a bureaucratic fixer, and how Vance had limited relevant experience. But there have been recent reports that he’s been something of a political fixer. Tasks have included attempting to broker peace between AG Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel—who are fighting over how to handle the Epstein files. That’s another issue Vance is attempting to manage. He also travelled to Indiana, met with officials there to push for a mid-decade redistricting so that the GOP can hold the House of Representatives in the midterms.
A good VP identifies areas with the president needs help, policy or political vacuums, and attempts to fill them. In that regard, Vance is playing it smart and setting himself up for Trump’s nod of approval in 2028.
Raising the Waters: The Divine Vice Presidency
To facilitate the Vance family vacation in Ohio, the Army Corps of Engineers changed the outflow of water from Caesar Creek Late into the Little Miami River. Officially this was done at the request of the Secret Service, without Vance’s knowledge, so that the security detail would be able to accompany the vice president and his family. The Vances were kayaking, but the Secret Service uses larger, motorized boats. According to some reports this was highly unusual and inappropriate. Other reports state that it wasn’t that big a deal. Water outflows have been changed for recreational reasons before and the changes were well within the system’s normal operations. Something similar was done on the Connecticut River for Al Gore in 1999.
I’m not sure if this is really Vance’s Watergate (get it…), but I think it’s telling in a different way.
There are three scenarios here:
Vance ordered the changes in outflow to enhance his vacation.
Vance’s team ordered the changes in outflow to enhance his vacation, without his knowledge.
Vance’s team ordered the changes in outflow to ensure his safety, without his knowledge.
Whether Vance, like an Egyptian Pharaoh, issued the command: “Raise the waters” or it was the result of the vast machinery that accompanies every vice-presidential move, each of these scenarios speaks to an Imperial Presidency. The presidency is so special, powerful, and holy that even the president’s successor must be protected and never suffer any inconvenience, whatever the cost. The U.S. cannot afford to be rudderless at any moment, therefore absolutely no risks to our precious leaders can be tolerated. What if Donald Trump has a fatal heart attack and at nearly the same instant a surprise strong current overturns Vance’s kayak and he drowns? The U.S. would be completely vulnerable to a surprise attack!
When you actually think about it, this is all a bit ridiculous. In the words of the late P.J. O’Rourke:
We treat the president of the United States with awe. We impute to him remarkable powers. We divine things by his smallest gestures. We believe he has the capacity to destroy the very earth, and—by vigorous perusal of sound economic policy—make the land fruitful and all our endeavors prosperous. We beseech him for aid and comfort in our every distress and believe him capable of granting any boon or favor.
The type is recognizable to even a casual student of mythology…. He is a divine priest-king.
According to my research, assassination attempts on VPs are serious things. Reasonable steps should be made to keep the VP safe. But, maybe we need to bring our presidents and vice presidents down a peg. I think we’d all be a bit better for it.
Lt. Gov. of California Drops out and Down
Big Lt. Governor news in California. Eleni Kounalakis, the current Lt. Governor, has dropped out of the governor’s race and will instead run for state Treasurer. The California Lt. Gov. is not a great steppingstone to the Governor’s office. The current governor did it, as did Gray Davis (one of only two governors in U.S. history to be recalled.) But no others have succeeded in recent state history. I’ve written before about the structural reasons for the weakness of the California No. 2. On paper, it may seem Kounalakis is taking a demotion, but in terms of actual power and influence, the state treasurer has a lot more to do.
There are a lot of big names in the California gubernatorial race, so it’s interesting that two big names: Kamala Harris and now Kounalakis have passed. Harris would almost certainly have won. Kounalakis faced a much harder path. The daughter of a wealthy real estate developer with deep political connections in the Bay Area, Kounalakis is a protégé of Harris and Pelosi. Her exit from the race means more Bay Area campaign donations for the other candidates—and the potential of an endorsement from Pelosi and/or Harris.
For Down the Hall however, the big story remains that Lt. Governor of our biggest state isn’t a much bigger job. Political leaders need help and just as President Carter observed of the vice presidency, the Lt. Governor of California is an untapped resource.
Receding Impeachment in the Philippines
The impeachment sage of Sara Duterte, the vice president of the Philippines, is stumbling to a close—but not quite.
Last week we wrote that the Supreme Court of the Philippines ruled that for procedural reasons the impeachment could not go forward, but they could impeach her again in 2026. The Senate, which would try Duterte, archived the impeachment. The House of Representatives has filed a motion against the Supreme Court’s ruling. The Senate has been criticized for being so eager to drop the case, when a motion was about to be filed. The Senate leadership insists the impeachment case is archived, not eliminated, and could be brought back to their agenda. But to do so would require another vote to pull it from the archives—a procedural barrier that makes a trial unlikely even if the Supreme Court allows it.
Long and short, it’s pretty clear that the House, which is dominated by allies of President Marcos, wants the impeachment of Duterte (a rival to Marcos) to go forward. The Senate, where support for Marcos is weaker, doesn’t want to try her and be put on the spot of voting to convict or acquit. Politicians are the same the world over.
There is something at stake here. Marcos is generally aligned with the U.S. in an attempt to balance against China’s increasing encroachment into the Philippines’ territorial waters. Duterte, following in the footsteps of her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, might tack closer to China.
Coming soon…
Lots of great stuff coming next week. We’ll have part one of the Veepstakes 2028. With various politicians maneuvering for the 2028 presidential campaign, it isn’t too early to consider who might be a good running mate. Part one will look at the Democrats. In the following week we’ll look at Republicans.
South Sudan has been receiving U.S. deportees. There is a vice presidential angle to this, reflecting the political squabbles between the president of South Sudan and his seven Veeps.