Trump’s Pick: Safe Bet, Burgum / Wild Card Haley (?)
We don’t have any special insight into who Trump will pick as VP. The truth is that academic research finds that the VP pick doesn’t matter that much in terms of the election. We are generally more interested in what VPs do, and Trump isn’t exactly looking for a governing partner. But, since we are among the leading dozen Veepologists in the world and Trump is announcing his pick at any moment, so here goes…
Bottom Line: Odds are, Burgum: 50%. Vance is 20%. Rubio is 10%. Someone else entirely is 15%. The last 5% is the real baller move – Nikki Haley.
Burgum is an old rich guy. That’s the kind of guy Trump likes. Bergum has been super-loyal and has a willowy blond wife. Trump likes that, but also Kathryn Bergum has struggled with addiction and been public about it. Trump does seem to care about addiction, his own elder brother died young from alcoholism.
Bergum is the safe bet, both if you are betting on the pick and if you are Trump. He won’t impress anyone but he won’t particularly offend anyone.
It could be Senator JD Vance, who is clearly smart and talented. Vance, however, ran a pretty weak campaign – winning because Ohio is a deep red state. Vance doesn’t bring a lot of experience (Senate for two years). But Trump’s decision-making is mercurial, so who knows.
Senator Rubio would be a fantastic choice. The first Latino on a national ticket. He’s telegenic, young, and brings real policy chops and is a normalish conservative policy-wise. We can talk about bad blood from the 2016 campaign, but the real issue is Florida. They are both residents of Florida, and under the Constitution the president and VP can’t be from the same state. Dick Cheney moved from Texas to his home state of Wyoming to become eligible for the VP. Trump is rich and lives in Florida because of the favorable tax situation. Rubio is a sitting Senator from the state. So neither can really move. Trump might shrug and say Constitution be damned, I’m picking Rubio. This would not be out character – particularly given his recent legal success. Still, it’s a risk.
It could of course be someone who dropped off the list like Sen. Tim Scott or Rep. Elise Stefanik.
But, if Trump wants to run on having had a chance of heart after the attempted assassination, Nikki Haley is the perfect pick. She ran hard against him in the primary, and choosing her would show a willingness to bridge divides. She’s a good campaigner and appeals to some moderates. And of course, she’d be an historic pick. Worth noting she was recently invited to speak at the convention. Previously she wasn’t going to be a speaker, given bad blood from the primary.
Once we know who the VP pick will be, we can focus on the interesting question of what role they will play in office.