The New Veep's First Week
So how is JD doing?
JD Vance has been vice president for just over a week. So it certainly isn’t too early to ask how he is doing, and what indications there are about his future role in the administration.
The Senate
Vance lead the effort to confirm Peter Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, shepherding Hegseth through the process, meeting with Senators. Hegseth, unlike most nominees, only met with the Senators of his own party. When Hegseth was confirmed 51-50, with Vance presiding and delivering the tie-breaking vote, it was a win for Trump. And Trump likes winning—especially when he’s told he cannot do something. (There were some serious questions about Hegseth’s fitness for the position.)
Seeing Hegseth confirmed places Vance in a positive light with his core constituency, Donald Trump. This was a promising start. Pence lost Trump’s confidence when he was unable to manage the repeal of the Affordable Healthcare Act.
The Senate has been the dominant source of vice presidents over the past 80 years. (Since 1944 11 of 17 VPs have come from the Senate.) Many vice presidents have played central roles working with the Senate. It isn’t clear if Vance, who has a mere two years as a Senator under his belt, will be able to fulfill that function in the Trump administration.
The three GOP no votes on Hegseth could be harbingers of difficulty. Senators Collins and Murkowski are known to be mavericks in the Senate. But if McConnell, the still influential former Majority Leader is willing to buck the party, it can put GOP initiatives in doubt. At the very least, Vance—like Harris—may be forced to spend more time presiding over the Senate and breaking ties than he would prefer.
White House Influence
In his public appearances, Vance is proving to be a good Trump explainer. Pence was often called upon to reiterate Trump’s statements in a more moderate and acceptable way. In his debate with Walz, Vance showed his communication skills, and they will serve him well. I am skeptical of Vance being influential in the Trump White House for many reasons. But his ability to communicate on TV is critical to Trump. It is at least a prerequisite to having Trump’s ear.
We have at least a quantum of vice-presidential influence. In his remarks at the Liberty Ball, Trump said that Vance was among his advisors who successfully urged him to tone down his inaugural address. So there’s that.
Staffing
As discussed in my last post, the VP’s staff is an important factor in their success and role in the White House. Trump now has a deep bench of experienced loyalists, so the likelihood that Vance staffers will step into the breach when Trump loyalists can’t get things done is less likely. But for Vance’s own appearances and portfolio, a good staff is key. Staffing issues bedeviled VP Harris for the first part of her term in office. Things stabilized when she brought on a new chief of staff (Lorraine Voles) who was an experienced Washington hand and had a good working relationship with White House chief of staff Ron Klain.
For the most part, Vance is bringing his Senate staff (many of whom played key roles in his 2022 Senate campaign) with him to the Eisenhower Executive Office Building (EEOB). The EEOB is the main office annex to the White House and most of the VP’s staff is there, most of the time. They look like a young, but experienced group who both know Vance and know their way around DC. His chief of staff, Jacob Reses, has a good bit of Hill experience and was a top aide to Russell Vought, Trump’s nominee for OMB. Vance’s national security advisor is Andy Baker, who was a Foreign Service Officer for 13 years before joining Vance’s staff.
The particularly interesting news is that Tucker Carlson’s son, Buckley will be Vance’s deputy press secretary. Whatever Buckley skills, he worked for Indiana Senator Jim Banks, he could be an interlocuter with his father who looms large in the Trumpverse. This may prove useful as the administration sails into rough waters and squabbling factions emerge.
Conclusion
This will be the first of many takes on how Vance does, “Down the Hall.” So far he hasn’t stumbled or embarrassed himself. The VP can be an interesting indicator of what and how an administration is doing—who is in and who is out. So we’ll keep watching and I hope you’ll keep reading.