The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly starring VP Vance

Veep in the Maelstrom

Vance has been in the thick of the dumpster fire that is the Trump administration. There’s been some good (and not just the big announcement), quite a bit of bad signs for Vance’s political future both at home and abroad, and some real ugly.

A Big Upcoming Welcome to Baby Vance

Congratulations to VP Vance and Second Lady Usha Vance on their expected fourth child. I say this with absolute joy and sincerity. I’m also full of parenting advice if anyone is interested.

Being a parent can be exhausting, but it’s also awesome and I could not be happier for them. They will be the first 2nd family to have a newborn in office. JFK and Grover Cleveland had newborns as president.

Will the baby get a cool Secret Service codename like Rattle or Diaper?¹ If Usha Vance is SLOTUS will the baby be SBUS (Second Baby of the United States) or SIUS (Second Infant of the United States)? By the time they leave office it will be STUS (Second Toddler of the United States).

Vance is concerned about the birth dearth, a concern I share. I’m not sure he has good policy options to address it, but it’s good to see him walking the walk.

Every mother in history knows and has had that look on her face. The increase in complexity of parenting is not linear, grows geometrically with each child. Three children is three times as complicated as two. Four children is four times as complicated as three. Tracking the factional disputes and alliances between this many children will require a whole new data center. Good luck.

I’m not questioning the Vance’s motives here, but it is political smart. It makes news, it will be positive and make for good photos and stories. Also, if things don’t look good for Vance in 2028 (and well, read on), he can legitimately step aside saying he wants to spend time with his family. He’s young enough to return later.

Sincerest and heartiest congrats again!

Saving Tik-Tok

The Chinese company ByteDance has agreed to a deal that will transfer its U.S. assets, particularly social media app TikTok, to American owners. Congress, worried that TikTok was a vector for Chinese influence operations, passed legislation to force ByteDance to create an American-owned TikTok spin-off or be shut down in the United States. The Trump administration did not want this since TikTok is wildly popular and kept getting deadline extensions from Congress to negotiate a deal. Vance has been central to this process—including delivering an ultimatum to the Chinese when it looked like they were stalling.

This is is a win for the administration, for Vance as a key player, and for Vance’s Silicon Valley allies (particularly Oracle’s Larry Ellison) who will now own and control the profitable and popular social media platform.

The Bad at Home

Senate Troubles

Meanwhile at home, Vance is having trouble with two Senates.

First, the VP is yelling at Rod Bray, the Majority Leader of Indiana’s state Senate on social media. Vance and Trump remain perturbed that Indiana’s upper house refused to go along with his demand that they redistrict their U.S. House seats to further favor the Republicans ahead of the 2026 mid-terms. Hoosiers didn’t think this was fair and pushed back. Vance is revisiting this fight because Virginia will be redistricting to favor Democrats.

Meanwhile, at the U.S. Senate, Vance broke a tie to kill a measure allowing debate on the U.S. operation in Venezuela. I’ve written before that breaking the tie in the Senate is not a substantial duty, the VP just votes the way the President wants. But, when it happens, something is up. Five GOP Senators broke with the administration to support having the debate. The administration strong-armed two, but three remained opposed.

Both of these instances suggest that the administration’s support, even within the GOP, is weakening.

Stalling for Life

Vance spoke at the March for Life last week. A devout Catholic, he is a compelling administration representative on this issue, which is so critical to the administration’s base. He spoke movingly on the issue. But, at least some activists feel that the administration hasn’t been pushing their cause as of late, a reality Vance acknowledged.

From the anti-abortion perspective, the first-term Trump was one of their greatest heroes, appointing three like-minded justices to the Supreme Court, which enabled the overturning of Roe-v-Wade. But second-term Trump has had other priorities. Most activists for most issues are passionate and have a “what have you done for me lately” feeling. Even a small down-turn in this critical part of the base’s turnout could be bad for the mid-terms and for 2028. That being said, this is an area where Vance can reach the base—but doing so also activates the equally vociferous defenders of reproductive rights.

The Bad Abroad

Going for Greenland

Trump’s Greenland obsession is not a popular one. Even MAGA wasn’t really on board. But Vance has been all in on Trump’s gambit.

He could have sat this one out. Other, very loyal VPs, have recognized when it is wise to not get involved. Al Gore stayed out of the Clinton health care debacle. Mondale picked his battles carefully in the White House. Pence walked away from the voter fraud commission when he realized it was a big scam.

But Vance has fully backed the Greenland Gambit. Vance joined his wife on a trip to the world’s largest island, when her planned trip became controversial. The VP joined a meeting between Rubio and his Danish and Greenlander counterparts. His presence no doubt stymied what might have been a productive discussion on expanding the U.S. presence in the strategic arctic territory.

This might reflect Vance’s own low opinion of the Europeans, or it could be a recognition that anything other than obsequious loyalty won’t fly with Trump.

Now that Trump has claimed victory, after the Europeans came together and threatened massive economic retaliation, what does this mean for Vance. He’s with Rubio on the negotiating team to work out the details. Maybe this assignment will yield some solid achievements, or stuff that gives the appearance of achievement that Vance can trumpet. More likely, it will just remind people of Trump’s pointless saber-relating against an ally and ultimate fold and mire Vance in it as well.

Bomb Iran? The Perennial Question

Vance was part of the decision-making on whether or not to intervene in Iran, as the regime brutally cracks down on mass protests. Some sources have reported that Vance advocated for attacks, while others said the VP emphasized the need for diplomacy.

In principle, if U.S. military intervention could have brought down the Iranian regime, which is truly monstrous, I’d have to say go for it. But it’s not clear that airpower would be an effective tool and regional allies have expressed concerns about U.S. military action. The Venezuela operation required a lot of our military assets, so we might not have had the resources on hand to commit to an operation that could easily escalate and target U.S. forces in the region. That calculus could change rapidly as a carrier group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln steams towards the region.

Reportedly, Vance was concerned that Iran had crossed Trump’s stated red line by killing protestors and Trump would look weak if he didn’t enforce his stated red lines. This is the shadow of Obama’s infamous red line warning the Syrian government about the use of chemical weapons. When chemical weapons were used, Obama did not carry out strikes and somehow this specific incident became the original sin of American foreign policy in the Middle East. But Trump has an advantage in this situation, sometimes called the “Dove’s Dilemma.” When a leader with a “dovish” reputation chooses not to use force, the public is skeptical, although they gain support and are seen as credible when choosing war. A leader with a hawkish reputation, in turn is freer to make either choice. Obama was seen as a dove, probably not accurately considering the scale of his drone war, so when he chose not to strike he paid a price. Trump is seen as belligerent, so when he chooses to make peace or not to use force , it can be interpreted. It’s quite a power, if Trump had the skill to use it. (Of course the TACO phenomenon may have squandered this resource.)

There is a chance whatever the administration does in Iran works out for the best: a rapid strike removes the regime and something stable emerges or the problem goes peters out and we all move one. But it’s the Middle East, it could also go bad in lots and lots of ways—and whatever we do just makes it worse.

And The Ugly

Be Nice to ICE?

JD Vance’s combative appearance in the Twin Cities reeked of desperation, as he tried to defend the violence and impunity of federal law enforcement operations. He tried to shift blame for the unraveling situation there on state and local law enforcement. Mass deportation is a central promise of the Trump administration. But federal law enforcement actions in Minnesota have turned public opinion against these policies. Vance’s efforts did not shift opinion.

Trump, in his typical gambit, after having pointlessly escalated a situation and facing consequences, is now folding. He’s speaking with Minnesota Governor Walz and clearing preparing to reduce the anti-immigrant operations there.

But Vance’s defense of a flailing and awful policy will stick, he’ll be the Baghdad Bob of the Twin Cities. His remarks will be fodder for campaign ads and opposition questions in the mid-terms and 2028.

Tech Troubles/Musk Mess

British Deputy PM David Lammy called his buddy VP Vance earlier this month to express his deep concerns about Elon Musk’s AI tool Grok, which can create horrendous pornographic images and videos. Vance agreed, but The EU, and lots of other countries, are also concerned about the AI porn and abusive images. Some of these countries are threatening Musk with fines, investigations, bans, and even criminal prosecutions.

On the one hand this highlights Vance’s growing influence. He is becoming the administration’s liaison to the techlords in general and Musk in particular. It is also probably the exact type of assignment he really doesn’t want. It pushes him to pressure Musk, who doesn’t much like being pressured and can react in unpredictable ways. Vance was the one who brokered peace between the White House and Musk when he left DOGE.

Besides the personal problem this presents for Vance, it is also an ideological/policy problem. He has been vocal in his opposition to European style regulation of technology.

Something Else about Deepfakes (but not JD Vance)

There is an aspect of generative AI that world leaders should discuss seriously. Given the ease with which high-quality deepfakes can be made there is a very real risk that deepfakes can be made of world leaders issuing instructions, saying ludicrous things, or other malfeasance. Deepfakes have already been used in scams.

Deepfakes could not be be used to launch a nuclear attack, but they could at least generate confusion and potentially cause lower level actions that are not in a nation’s interests.

Nations would be wise to develop an arms control type treaty against deepfakes targeting national leaders and establish it as a taboo international behavior that will be sanctioned.

1. The other Vance children have dinosaurs for their Secret Service code names. The specifics are redacted, but I bet they fought over who got T-Rex. The VP’s codename, btw is “Bobcat.” The Second Lady’s codename has not been made known to the public, but I bet it’s cool.