Risky Business: Vance Negotiates with Iran
An Unprecedented Role for the Vice Presidency
JD Vance has been assigned the ignominious task of negotiating a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
Bottom-line, I think he has a 50/50 chance of succeeding.
That’s a bit more optimistic than I was in my comments to AFP yesterday, but it’s still a high-risk/high-reward endeavor.
What’s a Win?
Defining success important. Vance will not be able to settle the myriad and complex issues between the U.S. and Iran which include Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, Americans held hostage by Iran, opening the straits of Hormuz, U.S. sanctions on Iran, and more.
Vance’s job is to get a good enough agreement where everyone gets some things they want, agrees to keep talking, and then goes home and calls it a win. Neither the U.S. nor Iran really want to keep fighting (although Israel apparently does). Punditry is claiming Iran has won, but a devastated Iran cannot afford many more such victories. The U.S. (and the world) want to staunch rising energy prices and the inflation they trigger.
Can Vance cut a deal that papers over all of this, ends the shooting, and allows the tankers to pass through the strait? Maybe. Israel and Iran will probably continue to shoot at one another. Iran’s nuclear program will be in stasis (or rebuilt very slowly and quietly). Iran may collect on tankers passing through, but it will be through obscured side payments.
Good reporting will show that the provisions of the agreement aren’t really holding, but unless the violations are particularly egregious, those reports won’t resonate. Vance, and Trump, will call it a win.
In this scenario, Vance has some advantages. The actual agreement will not need to go deep in the weeds, so Vance’s limited experience as an international negotiator won’t be an absolute barrier to success. Assuming Vance can get some kind of deal, the question will be whether or not he can sell the deal to Trump as a win. If so, Trump can then sell most anything to his base.
But there are obstacles to Vance achieving a modest success here. First, while it may not be fatal his limited experience with international negotiations (along with the lack of such experience among his co-envoys Kushner and Wittkoff) will be a limitation. They cannot avoid all of the details. Sometimes people with limited experience at international diplomacy prove naturals on the world stage. It would be foolish to count Vance out, he has had success working on previous administration negotiations.
Vance will be negotiating with the Iranians, who are famously tough negotiators, and believe they have the better hand. Further, it does not appear that Vance will be well-staffed. There were numerous reports that Wittkoff and Kushner had only a few staffers supporting them in the previous rounds of negotiations and were not tapping into existing expertise at the State Department or intelligence community. The U.S. Embassy in Pakistan does not have an ambassador, an indication that the U.S. embassy may be under-resourced. Staff is essential for the nuts and bolts of reviewing proposals, developing options, and all the other details that need to be managed so the principals can focus on the most important issues.
Finally, Israel, which is existentially concerned about Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, may act as a spoiler of negotiations in pursuit of its security. It looks like Trump is pressuring Israel to join in the ceasefire, and Vance may be able to decouple Israeli actions from those of the U.S.
If Vance can succeed it will be a solid win for him and solidify his position as the GOP 2028 front-runner. A failure may doom his future prospects. Trump has already said that he’ll blame Vance if a deal cannot be had or falls apart.
Unprecedented Role for the VP
I cannot think of a case in which the VP led a formal negotiation process. That is usually the role of the Secretary of State or a special envoy or ambassador. Rubio could lead, but since he is dual-hatted as National Security Adviser, he probably needs to stay close to the White House. He may also recognize the high-risk of failure and be keeping his distance. Vance was also skeptical about the Iranian adventure, a position which may have led the Iranians to believe he was the preferred negotiating partner.
This isn’t to say that VPs aren’t involved in foreign policy. They deliver public and private messages, they often negotiate directly with world leaders—but it’s done at a very high-level. It’s in the realm of personal diplomacy. Leading a formal and public negotiating team like this is new. Perhaps the closest parallel is when Al Gore led a number of bi-national commissions with Russia, Ukraine, Egypt, and South Africa. In this case, the VP’s ability to convene agencies across the government was critical to strengthening governance in the partner nations.
In Trump’s personalist administration however, it is little surprise that the vice president is tapped for new and different missions. But this comes with the risk of becoming the fall guy.