Republican Veepstakes 2028
Enter the MAGAverse
The GOP 2028 Veepstakes is both simpler and more complex than that of the Democrats (who we analyzed last week). Simpler because there is a strong likelihood that JD Vance will be the nominee. More complex because while we saw that the Democrats consistently picked Senators as running mates; GOP running mates come from multiple sources.
First, will JD Vance be the GOP nominee? Maybe not, but name a sitting VP in the last 80 years who sought the nomination and didn’t get it? I’ll wait…
Alben Barkley, Truman’s VP, in 1952 is the exception. Truman had decided not to run for re-election because he was so unpopular. The Democratic Party needed new blood. At the time Barkley was also the oldest VP in U.S. history. He was 74 and this was considered an issue. Those were the days…
Vance isn’t a lock. He could implode. The GOP could implode. An impressive figure could challenge Vance for the nomination. Trump, not-so-secretly, lusts for a third term.
Still, Vance is a sound bet for the nomination.
GOP Veepstakes Basics
In our previous post on the Democratic Veepstakes, we outlined what the research tells us about the selection of running mates. First, there is Devine and Kopko’s Do Running Mates Matter? The answer they find is, not a lot. A truly charismatic pick can help the ticket across the board, which is great. Good luck finding one. Sometimes picks can reassure key constituencies about the candidate (Pence reassured Evangelicals about Trump in 2016.) A running mate can help, a little, in their home state. The most important item is to not screw up, pick someone who appears—presidential.
Research by the brilliant Julia Azari and William Adler found that GOP nominees tend to pick more conservative running mates to reassure the party faithful. There are exceptions, like Reagan picking Bush (after asking Ford.) Although there may not have been many viable picks who were more conservative than Reagan in 1980.
If JD Vance seeks a more conservative running mate, I have a suggestion.
Seriously, the GOP is now fully MAGA and they are not tolerant of those who break from their orthodoxy. On the off chance someone who isn’t fully MAGA is the nominee, they will have to choose a MAGA running mate.1 But it also isn’t likely that a MAGA nominee will pick anyone non-MAGA. Historically, the GOP base is large and unforgiving, a MAGA nominee choosing someone relatively moderate will be seen as a betrayal.
GOP Running Mates Can Come From Anywhere
The analytical challenge for examining the Republican Veepstakes is that GOP nominees come from all over the place. Since 1948 GOP running mates have included four governors (five if you include Ford appointing Rockefeller), four Senators, two Representatives, and four high-level officials.
This last group is interesting; all had been previously elected to Congress. Nixon chose former Massachusetts Senator and UN ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge in 1960.2 In 1980 Reagan chose George H.W. Bush, former Director of Central Intelligence, UN Ambassador, and Congressman. Bob Dole chose former HUD Secretary, Congressman, and NFL quarterback Jack Kemp in 1996. Finally in 2000 George W. Bush chose Dick Cheney, his father’s Secretary of Defense, former House Minority Whip, and former White House chief of staff.
Since more than half of the GOP running mates either came from the Senate or the Governor’s Mansion, it makes sense to start there.
The purple state GOP Senators are slim pickings. Choosing one could threaten a GOP majority. Although the mid-terms could change that equation. There is only one GOP purple state governor.
Why is Georgia Governor Brian Kemp Unlikely rather than Not Viable? Kemp rejected Trump’s demand that Kemp overturn Biden’s 2020 win in Georgia. But Kemp has a solid conservative record and is very popular in Georgia. Officially he and Trump are now ok. If Trump publicly blessed him as a pick, Kemp would be a perfect choice for running mate. Outside of the 2020 elections, Kemp is acceptable to MAGA, but he’d send a message of a government committed to integrity. Kemp would have that ephemeral presidential quality. Look it won’t happen. But if it did…
There are some interesting picks among GOP governors in blue states.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin appears to be a strong pick, on paper. His term in VA has not been an unmitigated success. In the state midterms he lost control of the state House. But he was elected in a good-sized state that is now pretty blue, while hitting both pro-business and MAGA notes.
Kelly Ayotte is an interesting possibility. She was a moderate Republican who criticized Trump, but she has since become full MAGA. She lost her Senate re-election campaign by the narrowest of margins. New Hampshire only has four votes in the Electoral College, but placing a woman on the ticket may generate some interest.
There are a plethora of Senators and Governors from red states who would be solid and conventional choices. Tapping a House member for running mate is not terribly appealing in an age of slim majorities, but here too there are dozens of possible picks. If the nominee wants youth, Governor DeSantis, Senators Hawley, Sheehy, Cotton, Young, Schmitt, and Mullins are all young (ish) men. Senators Katie Britt and Ashley Moody are young woman. If the GOP chooses to do something interesting, like pick a member of a minority there are fewer choices. Tim Scott, Senator from South Carolina, is African-American. There are several GOP House members who are Latino, African-American, or Asian-American.
But rather than get into this large potential pool, let’s…
Check the Cabinet
From the cabinet, the obvious figure is Marco Rubio. He’s worked hard to enter and remain in Trump’s good graces. It appears that the VP and the Secretary of State have built a solid working relationship. With his time as a Senator and at State he’ll appear a sort of elder statesman next to Vance. Rubio would also be the first Latino on a national ticket.3 At the same time, he’s young enough to wait a decade to run for president. While praising Vance, Trump has said Rubio, among others, is also a potential successor. Let’s take a look at some of the others.
Here’s a more detailed breakdown, focusing on other cabinet members who have run for president or have a high profile.
Noem is popular among the MAGA faithful. To me, she’s a more polished Sarah Palin. When Palin reached the national stage, she had been governor for two years. Noem has far more time in major political office. Still, she’s got a lot of weird baggage: killing puppies, doing dental surgery infomercials, and Corey Lewandowski.
RFK Jr. (who I’m not sure would do much change the outcome in NY) also seems like a headcase who wouldn’t be great with message discipline.
Doug Burgum (along the Glenn Youngkin) are the central casting “boring white guys.” Safe picks.
Pam Bondi is an interesting possibility. She won two elections for Attorney General in Florida. In the administration she is the point-person for a lot of MAGA priorities. But I’d bet that it is more likely they put her on the Supreme Court.
Bottom-line it!
There are a lot of interesting choices for running mate in the GOP dugout. Youngkin looks good on paper. But if the GOP loses badly in Virginia’s upcoming elections his stock will drop.
If they want to take some interesting risks, there’s Ayotte of New Hampshire and Kemp of Georgia.
There are plenty of cookie-cutter MAGA types in the Senate and governor’s mansions around the country.
But at this point, I’d put my money on Rubio. He’s experienced, telegenic, and would represent continuity. He’s already working closely with Vance in the administration’s central decision-making group.
Last week, I wrote that my bottom-line pick for the Democratic running mate was Rueben Gallego. By naming Rubio as a strong possibility as the Republican running mate, I have highlighted a pair of Latinos as being potential members of a national ticket. I cannot say for certain either Gallego or Rubio will be on the ticket; a lot can happen between now and 2028. Our last all-white guy election was in 2004. Since then every election has featured at least one person of color and/or woman on one of the two national tickets.4 That trend will continue.
In last week’s post on the Democrats I outlined these dynamics in a convenient 2x2.
Lodge lost his Senate seat in 1952 to JFK, who was at the top of the ticket in 1960. Not a great pick by Nixon. He was also a GOP moderate who annoyed the party faithful. On balance he probably hurt the ticket, which lost the 1960 election by a very narrow margin. It was not a mistake Nixon would repeat.
Rubio on the ticket may not resonate with most American Latinos. Rubio is Cuban. My sources tell me that Cubans are seen as distinct from other Latino communities and that there is some resentment towards them. Still, Rubio can campaign in Spanish and it would gain the ticket some additional attention.
Granted, with the exception of Palin, all of these picks have been on the Democratic tickets.