On Iran, was the Veep Indiscreet?
War in the Middle East has put Vance in lousy spot
Having it known that you were on the losing side of a policy debate is bad for any DC player. It’s especially bad for vice presidents, since any real power they have comes from the president. If the president is rejecting the VP’s policy advice, then what good is the Veep? For this reason, vice presidents been careful about publicly stating their positions or revealing the advice they give to the president.
VP Vance is trying to steer that course, but his disagreements about the Iran “excursion,” and foreign adventures in general, are well-known. While he tried to couch his opposition as “just asking questions,” the plethora of leaks made his stance public. Trump himself stated, “He [Vance] was, I would say, philosophically a little bit different than me. I think he was maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was quite enthusiastic. But I felt it was something we had to do.”
Since then, Vance has been hounded with questions about whether he supported attacking Iran. In response, the vice president has reiterated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and that foreign adventures are bad when the president is dumb, but Trump is smart.
Earlier this week, when asked about his advice to Trump, Vance responded:
I hate to disappoint you, but I’m not going to show up here and, in front of God1 and everybody else, tell you exactly what I said in that classified room. Partially because I don’t want to go to prison, and partially because I think it’s important for the president of the United States to be able to talk to his advisers without those advisers running their mouth to the American media.
Here Vance reiterates the standard operating procedure for VPs and other close advisers to the president. Discretion is all-important.
Secrets of the Veep
Vance’s statement that these discussions are classified is new.2
While the Situation Room in the White House is a SCIF (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility), it isn’t clear that every conversation in it is necessarily classified. The question was whether Vance supported the war or not, stating the affirmative or negative would not reveal the sorts of details, methods, or sources that the classification process is intended to protect. If Vance said something that annoyed the president, Trump being Trump, the VP could be frozen out of the process which would be a sort of “Trump prison.”
It also made me curious about the vice president’s authorities regarding classification and declassification of material. The governing document is a 2009 Executive Order from Obama.
The president has ultimate declassification authority. Some presidents, like Biden, have used this authority strategically. Others, like Trump, to impress visiting dignitaries. The vice president does have the authority to classify documents, but not to declassify them.3 So if Vance did in fact reveal classified information or mishandle classified information, he could, in theory, go to prison. Trump would probably pardon him though.
Vance might have just been joking with this answer, or attempting to raise the stakes so journalists would back off and stop hounding him about it. Either way, it highlights how Vance’s position as the administration’s dissenter has put him in an awkward spot.
Emerging Rivalry
Vance and Rubio forged a good working relationship and reportedly are friendly. Both have denied any rivalry for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. But they are both ambitious politicians. Vance is the overwhelming 2028 favorite among Republicans according to recent polls, but Rubio’s stock is rising.
While MAGA supposedly opposed foreign wars, it is really a cult of personality around Trump. If Trump thinks a war with Iran is a good idea, MAGA supports it. There are loud MAGA voices criticizing the war, they are a fringe minority. Vance’s association with these figures, such as the conspiracy-minded recently resigned National Counter Terrorism Center director, does the VP no favors.
While Vance was known to oppose the war, Rubio is a supporter. Trump has been talking up Rubio lately.
Vance was given the consolation prize of investigating fraud in Minnesota. This is a significant gig since Trump and MAGA really don’t like the Somali community there, or the state in general. Plus, Republicans love to make hay about fraud in our social welfare systems, going back at least to the welfare queen stories of the 1980s.4
There won’t be any fireworks between Vance and Rubio. Their rivalry will remain out of public and even private view. They will probably get along well personally. But they will both carefully position themselves. In this sort of fight, Rubio is a more experienced politician and has an advantage.
Both Vance and Rubio may have incentives to sit out 2028. If the GOP brand is mud and the Democrats manage to avoid being grossly incompetent, the 2028 Trump heir is headed for a big loss. Both Rubio and Vance are young, at least for politicians. As A.J. Liebling, the Herodotus of the fight game, observed when considering if a young Cassius Clay would mature to become a great fighter, “Time is all. A young man’s best friend is time.”5
Presumably, the Almighty already knows what Vance told Trump, and what he whispers into the pillow in the small hours, and even what is said in the Situation Room—the security can’t be that good.
In my time as a government contractor, I took numerous trainings on handling classified material and records management and found it all terrifying and confusing. Non-classified items, when combined may be classified. All sorts of material that contributes to government decisions are records and need to be preserved. There are criminal penalties. Fortunately I didn’t deal with classified material or do anything that contributed to government decisions. What did I do you ask? What a great question!
It’s a lot easier to classify things than declassify them, which leads to classification inflations. Also, see the above footnote. Classification is confusing and if you get it wrong you can get in trouble. This creates strong incentives to: when in doubt, classify.
The specific welfare queen Reagan referred to was very real and welfare fraud was the least of her endeavors. But, the story became a myth that there are large numbers of people living large on social welfare, a myth that is foundational to the current GOP worldview.
Liebling died on December 28, 1963. Less than two months later, Clay (later of course Muhammad Ali) defeated Sonny Liston to become the World Heavyweight Champion.