Living Rent-free in Vance's Head
The right-wing/techlord obsession with Greta Thunberg
When VP J.D. Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference and freaked the living hell out of the Europeans, among his notable comments was:
And trust me, I say this with all humor, if American democracy can survive 10 years of Greta Thunberg’s scolding, you guys can survive a few months of Elon Musk.
OK.
The Washington Post obtained leaked audio of a series of lectures by tech billionaire, presumptive thought leader, and JD Vance mentor, Peter Thiel. Excerpts can be misleading, and I don’t have access (or frankly the time) to listen to this audio myself. Lots of things that were obviously jokes can be misinterpreted.
Further I am not a Thielologist, so I’m not equipped to do a deep dive into his very strange ideas about the world, or the various strange worldviews emanating from Silicon Valley. Extremely smart people often become overconfident about their ability to understand things outside of their domain.
I was interested to learn that Thiel is a devout Christian and in that vein, he said:
In the 21st century, the Antichrist is a Luddite who wants to stop all science. It’s someone like Greta or Eliezer.
Greta is the environmental activist Greta Thunberg and Eliezer refers to Eliezer Yudkowsky, who believes super AI will destroy humanity. I’m not a fan of either of their worldviews, but calling them the Antichrist seems a bit over-the-top. (Thiel also throws shade at his fellow techlords Marc Andreesen and Bill Gates.)
Why is Greta Thunberg living rent-free in the heads of someone worth north of $20 billion and the vice president of the United States?
It’s Personal
I haven’t read Ayn Rand. I like policy-oriented libertarians who often have interesting new approaches to policy problems. I’m a bit less keen on Ayn Rand libertarians who get all “government is theft” and whatever. Thiel read Rand when he was young, I’m not sure about Vance. In Rand’s novel The Fountainhead a brilliant architect with original, creative ideas finds himself stymied by a socialist architecture critic who criticizes new ideas. So at least some of the oligarchs take ideas seriously—I’m not sure if that’s a good or bad thing.
There’s more to it than that. The billionaires feel vulnerable. In their own circles they are kings surrounded by courtiers. When they engage one another it is as members of an exclusive club. But we have social media and when a billionaire posts their wisdom, they often don’t receive the immediate acclaim to which they are accustomed. Some (many) basically avoid social media, it isn’t interesting to them. Good for them. Some are good at it. Some just buy it for themselves (looking at you Elon…)
But many find they are no better at it than the average knucklehead, but because they are rich they attract attention and critics. That isn’t much fun.
According to The Washington Post excerpts, Thiel at least, and probably other mega-rich types, are worried about state power expropriating their wealth. This may seem ridiculous to us, and a good reason to support liberal democracy and rule of law, but that’s not how the mega-rich feel and you can’t argue with feelings.
Regulatory Terror
But the big issue is the fear of regulation.1 Thiel worries that the Antichrist (possibly in the form of Greta Thunberg) will make arguments lead grassroots campaigns that spark regulation and snuff out innovation. This was also a big theme of JD Vance’s speech in Paris on AI, (just days before the Munich speech.)
At the end of the article on Thiel, Garry Tan, the CEO of Y Combinator and a member of the ACTS 17—the Silicon Valley Christian organization that organized Thiel’s lecture series—said this Antichrist stuff was tongue in cheek and meant to be thought-provoking. But Tan also expressed a deep concern about over-regulating AI, citing the example of nuclear power which could have mitigated the climate crisis if it weren’t so heavily regulated.
Interesting that Tan cited nuclear power as a cautionary tale about over-regulation. The counterpoint to Tan’s argument is that nuclear power was over-regulated because the industry screwed up and scared the hell out of people with the incident at Three Mile Island.
I’ve also thought a bit about AI regulation. I wrote an in-depth2 paper on the need for techworld to invest heavily in risk communication to build trust with the public and also used nuclear power as a cautionary example.
I won’t reiterate my arguments here. The long and short is that the ideal example of risk communication is a good doctor and patient relationship. When a doctor presents the risks and benefits of a treatment while addressing concerns they build trust; the patient believes that the doctor has their best interests at heart. People regularly accept doses of toxins and radiation on the advice of doctors that far exceed what we are exposed to by industry.
This takes time, energy, and resources. It isn’t just a matter of slick communication to persuade, risk communication requires listening. Sometimes the concerns of the general public and of communities raise issues that experts did not consider. This can result in better products. It also builds trust.
Thiel is not alone among the techlords in resisting all of this. For experts, all this truck with the hoi polloi is tedious. It is an affront to have to explain this deeply complex material to a public that doesn’t really get it. It also may get in the way of fast product roll-out and financial maneuvers.
But without this public trust, the tech industries are vulnerable. They create the opportunity for a Thunberg or others to build campaigns against them, for publics to be persuaded by them, and for governments to engage in heavy-handed regulation. And let’s face it, the tech industry has given the general public plenty of cause for concern.
I’m not a Christian nor a true scholar of the Bible, but I believe there is an appropriate line from Galatians: …we reap what we sow.
I’m going to leave aside the fact that smart, well-thought out regulation can be a boon to industry.
That paper, by the way, was presented at a conference at Stanford University. I will never, not even on my deathbed, tire of saying this.