Kamala’s Choice: Complementary Chemistry
This was originally posted on August 6, the night before Harris made her VP selection known. I said Walz was the best choice as a governing partner and looked prescient. One note, I consulted with veteran friends and while senior NCOs in the regular army may have some serious and relevant experience, they were less impressed with a senior NCO in the National Guard.
In less than 24 hours we’ll know who Kamala Harris has chosen as her running mate, the Veepstakes will be over, and I will disappear from the public eye for the next four years.
The politics of Harris’ choice have been discussed endlessly (including by yours truly.) Long and short, it probably doesn’t make that much of a difference according to the best political science on the topic and all of the people being considered have important strengths and a few weaknesses. What I really research is what VPs do in office and how they can help make their presidents better as a unique high-level advisor and surrogate.
According to every account about the selection process, VP Harris has been emphasizing her chemistry with her potential running mate. The president and the vice president are stuck together through the campaign and then potentially for four or eight years. The VP is the one person who cannot be fired, so it is best if they can get along. (Nixon hated Agnew – which apparently was an easy thing to do.)
Politicians tend to be likeable, Ford and Rockefeller liked one another (Rockefeller was a man of overpowering charm.) But they were not on the same page on policy and Ford had his chiefs of staff (Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney) do the dirty work of cutting Rockefeller out of the policy process.
Not having a violent reaction is only the beginning of the needed chemistry between the president and vice president. A good vice president makes the president stronger, the way carbon strengthens iron into steel.
The metaphor is imperfect. Although many VPs have bolstered presidents who wavered or were indecisive (perhaps most notably Gore and Cheney for presidents Clinton and Gore.)
Presidents make difficult decisions, large and small, and manage complex issues. A vice president is, as two former national security advisors, Tony Lake and Stephen Hadley told me, uniquely able to provide advice and insight that blend politics and policy. This is where the complementary aspect of the vice-presidential role is key. They are both politicians and understand issues from that perspective, but a good VP may see different aspects of the problem – identifying pitfalls and opportunities that the president did not see.
At the core of my dissertation is that the American people have been electing outsider presidents who had little time in DC and selected DC-insider vice presidents who can help them with unfamiliar issues. Mondale was, according to Carter’s national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, “an invaluable political barometer.” Nearly every vice president since Mondale has emerged as a key advisor to the president on congressional affairs. Lots of other issues are new to outsider presidents, such as dealing with the intelligence community, or the media spotlight that comes with the presidency.
With four years in the Senate and four as vice president, Kamala Harris is no longer a DC-outsider. She has more DC experience than all but two of the last 8 presidents. Still, a good VP choice can provide important complementary knowledge.
Forget Political Balance, What about Analytical Balance?
There has been so much talk about political balance. What about analytical balance, someone who can provide different useful perspectives to a President Harris?
I know, I know: get to it already, so who would be a good pick, a good governing partner for Harris?
Leaked reports say the choice comes down to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. They are both extremely smart, capable, and successful politicians. It is hard to know exactly how they approach problems and how that interacts with Harris’ own approach. We can however look at their resumes for a sense of their areas of knowledge.
Shapiro has been governor less than two years, although he was attorney general of a big state for two terms. His political resume is strong. One question is whether having two attorneys general at the top will bring the most analytical balance. State attorneys general face a fairly similar range of issues and challenges. Would Shapiro offer a sufficiently different perspective? Worth noting, Shapiro served as a Senate staffer when he was younger, so DC is not completely unknown to him.
Walz was in congress for six terms before running for governor, so he has extensive experience with Congress which is always useful. He is not an attorney, but he was a Sergeant Major in the Army National Guard. This is a very different experience. Senior NCOs are both senior leaders who can take command, but also can be senior staffers who anticipate and take care of what the boss needs. This may be a very useful skill for a vice president, a role that Biden described as, “…the highest paid staff officer in the government.”
What about Mark Kelly? He may still be in the mix after all.
He has the least political experience, with only four years in the Senate and that is the fundamental requirement. If I’m praising Walz’s military experience than Kelly’s experience as a naval aviator and astronaut certainly counts for something. He commanded the space shuttle, although I’m not sure if leading a small crew of extremely skilled individuals compares to politics – which is mostly herding cats. Kelly has another important asset, his wife, Gabrielle Giffords was three-term Congresswoman (before being tragically shot) and is an experienced pol in her own right.
Bottom-line: They are all strong picks. Harris won’t go wrong with any of them – they are all terrific politicians. But Political experience counts for more than other experience for a politician and DC experience counts for more for a vice president. If you force me to pick based on what I know, I have to go with Walz.