Kamala Harris has a book out and we have takes!

A Veepological Analysis

Setting aside the score-settling and efforts to explain her defeat in the 2024 election, Kamala Harris’ new book 107 Days, is a treasure trove for Veepologists.

No doubt Harris’ new book will deserve at least one, and possibly many posts. But for the moment, we have the excerpt in The Atlantic which sheds light on her role in the Biden White House and reports about her own process in selecting a running mate.

Someone has a story to tell.

Biden and Harris: An Awkward Fit

The biggest question facing Harris as vice president was about the president’s fitness for office. It is also, as Harris makes very clear, an impossible question for the vice president to address. Anything other than complete loyalty will be seen as naked opportunism. This was true for Gore and Pence during their presidents’ impeachments, and it held true for Biden. Harris threads the needle saying that while Biden was slowing down, on his worst day he was still better than Trump.

Insider presidents tend to have deeply experienced staff who are very protective of their principal. This tracks with Harris’ description of her struggles getting the White House communications shop to highlight Harris or her work. Some of this was also a White House concern that she wasn’t ready for prime time. She felt that Biden himself should have taken action to advance her position. Carter did exactly this when he wanted to establish VP Mondale as his full governing partner. She argues that Biden, given his own vulnerabilities due to age, was less inclined to do so.

Harris specifically cites the administration’s lack of interest in pushing stories about her work to reduce the mass migration from Central America. She did do solid policy work on this issue. One can understand Harris’ frustration. But Harris had given a disastrous interview with Lester Holt on immigration and border security, which remained fodder for her critics. The White House communications team probably thought that highlighting Harris’ work on immigration would only remind people of her poor first impression.

Some of Harris’ statements echo my analysis (do you think she’s reading my stuff…) On Harris’ staffing issues I had written about the challenges of finding experienced DC-insiders who were a fit with the principal, and the high pressure environment of the White House. Harris wrote:

The plain fact is many people who come to work with a new administration in the White House haven’t done it before. It’s a job unlike any other, and not every person, no matter how talented in their former position, can step up into such a high-stress, round-the-clock role.

She also echoed my observations about the challenge of being constantly monitored by the press for any hint of a gaffe.

Harris certainly felt put-upon, but some Biden staffers did work with Harris. Chief of staff Ron Klain, who had also been chief of staff to two vice presidents, held weekly meetings with the VP. This was new. She also had regular meetings with Secretary of State Blinken. After the initial turmoil, she had some very good staff. Her national security advisor (VPNSA) Philip Gordon could have reasonably expected any number of high-level positions in most Democratic administrations. Typically, the VPNSA has been a deputy assistant to the president, Gordon was advanced to Assistant to the President. Gordon’s deputy, Rebecca Lissner had been director for strategic planning on the National Security Council. She chose to move from that critical position over to the Office of the Vice President.

The Quayle Comparison

Yours truly is a Kamala Harris fan. But, unfortunately, the most comparable VP in recent history is Dan Quayle. Like Quayle, Harros was the VP to an insider president. Insider presidents are more likely to choose their running mates for political reasons rather than qualifications. The insider presidents don’t tend to be very interested in their VPs as advisors and have insider staffs that usually distrust the vice president. That isn’t to say Harris wasn’t qualified. (The hill I will die on is that Quayle was qualified.) In addition, both Harris and Quayle had public gaffes that undermined their credibility. For Harris, there was no coming back from her disastrous interview on immigration. In his memoir Quayle talked about the challenge of overcoming a bad first impression. Harris faced the same.

When the Veep picks a Veep

From a Veepology perspective, VP Harris’ vice presidential selection process was also interesting.

The literature shows that running mates don’t make that much of a difference. They help a bit with their home state and can reassure skeptical factions of the party. On the rare occasion that a running mate is particularly charismatic they can help the ticket across the board. But this is rare. If the running mate is so charismatic, why aren’t they the nominee? There is another dynamic that pushes against picking a very charismatic running mate—the presidential nominee doesn’t want to be overshadowed. The candidate will want a running mate who is good… but not too good.

Political calculations are always front and center, but in general outsider presidential candidates who have spent little time in DC tend to focus more on qualifications for office. Insider candidates such as Nixon, Mondale, McCain, Biden, and, by 2024, Harris, tend to make the more blatantly political decisions. The insiders are less interested in governing partners.

Finally, loyalty is important. Presidents don’t want to have to manage their vice presidents.

The most important single factor in selecting a running mate is that the person be seen as qualified for the presidency.

Harris had a number of terrific people to choose from and she ended up with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. This isn’t a diss on Walz. With a dozen years in Congress and six in the Governor’s Mansion he had a solid political resume. He seemed to be a good campaigner, but wouldn’t overshadow Harris. (I thought he was a good pick.)

Why not Buttigieg?

Harris said that in her heart, Pete Buttigieg was her first pick, but she didn’t think America was ready. It’s also possible that Buttigieg wasn’t ready. Buttigieg is a first-rate communicator, but he doesn’t have much political experience. He was mayor of a small city for eight years and Secretary of Transportation for four years. His performance in the latter role was… not great. The single biggest issue he faced was the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio—which spewed deadly chemicals. The derailment wasn’t his fault, but Buttigieg was MIA in the aftermath. While Buttigieg might have been a better debater than Walz, Vance would have hammered Buttigieg on the train derailment in the debate. The train derailment was effectively the only policy issue that Vance worked in his brief tenure at Senator from Ohio. Also, given Buttigieg’s media skill, it’s possible Harris was (at least subconsciously) worried about a running mate who overshadowed her.

Can Kelly take a hit?

Harris’ characterization of Mark Kelly as “magnetic,” but that he hadn’t really taken a political hit is interesting. Kelly had some weirdness in his background which certainly would have come up. Harris’ worry was that he didn’t have the experience to parry it. She also wrote that Kelly had been recalcitrant in signing the PRO Act, an important labor initiative. From my perspective, Kelly’s entire political experience was four years in the Senate.

The Intrepid Shapiro

The discussion of PA Governor Josh Shapiro was particularly interesting. As an incredibly popular governorr of our nation’s largest purple state and as a skilled political problem solver, Shapiro may be the best politician in the United States. But his interview for running mate sounds like a disaster.

Shapiro, “mused that he would want to be in the room for every decision.” Harris says she replied, “a vice president is not a copresident.”

Shapiro also asked some off-putting but very specific questions about the bedrooms in the Vice President’s Residence and borrowing art Pennsylvania art from the Smithsonian for the Residence.

This seems like a pretty good guide to flubbing a job interview. Why would someone as smart as Shapiro obviously is do something so seemingly bone-headed?

Shapiro didn’t really want to be Harris’ running mate. It’s happened before. At the 1976 GOP convention Reagan avoided President Gerald Ford, so Ford couldn’t ask him to be his running mate. In a funny turnabout, in 1980 Reagan explored having Ford as his running mate. But Ford kept placing conditions that would have made him an effective co-president.

Shapiro had only just started working at a really good job—governor of Pennsylvania. If you like governing, that is solving problems and making people’s lives better, being a governor is a great gig. Shapiro is really good at it and clearly loves governing, he’s already made a big difference. For Shapiro to leave his dream job the opportunity would have to be very good. The vice presidency has been frustrating role. Lots of fundraisers and funerals. Even influential vice presidents recognize that they aren’t the boss. In the words of Joe Biden, as VP he was, “…the highest paid staff officer in the government.”

For Shapiro being the running mate meant one of two outcomes. If Harris won, Shapiro would face the frustration of being number two, after finally becoming the chief executive of Pennsylvania. If Harris lost, Shapiro would be attached to a losing ticket. Name a recent lost vice presidential candidate who went on to the presidency?¹

Funny coda, Harris states that Shapiro was indiscreet in using his vehicle, which had PA license plates, to travel to the Vice President’s Residence, tipping off reporters that he was being interviewed. This may be the whole story. Shapiro wanted the world to know he was being considered—but didn’t really want the job. Smart for him, not great for Harris.

Looking Ahead

Vice presidents may be like Tolstoy’s unhappy families, unique in their frustrations. Or perhaps all too similar. Harris’ book will be available to the public tomorrow (I’ll be offline for two days, but will get a copy on Thursday.) It will provide many more fascinating data points about our nation’s number two.

1. Off-hand, I have to go back to FDR, who was the vice presidential nominee in 1920. He became president in 1932.