Impeachments, Resignations, and Shitposting
Veeply Round-up
In this issue of the Veeply Round-up we lead off with a big story in the ongoing saga of Philippine VP Sara Duterte. We then have a medly of juicy tidbits on the VP of India, Lt. Governors here in the states, and some fun with Vance. Then we end with another big story examining Vance’s influence in the Trump administration.
Philippines: Veep Impeachment Off, For Now
The top VP story this week is that Sara Duterte, the vice president of the Philippines, has avoided impeachment—for the moment.
The Philippine Supreme Court ruled that that Philippines House of Representatives violated the Constitution by impeaching her more than once in a year.
VP Duterte has been feuding with President Marcos almost since they took office. Both are the children of former presidents (politics in the Philippines is very much a family affair.) Duterte was impeached for misuse of funds and threatening to assassinate the president. Also, in March, Marcos allowed Filipino police to enforce an ICC warrant for the arrest of Sara Duterte’s father Rodrigo. The former president was wanted for crimes committed during his war on drugs, which was popular in the Philippines. Being in the dock in The Hague has only increased the elder Duterte’s popularity. While imprisoned, he’s been re-elected mayor of Davao City, his long-time political base.
Institutionally the Vice President of the Philippines is not a strong office, elected separately from the president and with offices far from those of the president, significant effort is needed for a productive President-Vice President partnership. Although Marcos and Duterte allied for the 2022 elections, neither has seen fit to make the effort needed for a governing partnership.
Sara Duterte was gearing up to run for president (presidents are limited to a single term.) Marcos hoped an impeachment would derail her and someone from his clan could succeed him. But Duterte’s faction had a stronger than expected showing in the mid-terms, meaning it was less likely the Senate would convict her, which would both remove her from office and prevent her from running in the future. The Supreme Court ruling did not exonerate Duterte. She could be impeached again next year.
Do Marcos and his allies take another crack at removing Sara Duterte from the political chessboard? If so, there are a legion of other Duterte’s who could run. Her brother Sebastion was elected deputy mayor of Davao City and is governing in his incarcerated father’s place.
With two years left in his term, does Marcos have time to improve his party’s political fortunes improve and install a crony or relative?
If a Ceremonial VP Resigns, Does it Make News?
India’s Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar recently announced his resignation due to health issues. Being India, there are conspiracies swirling around this announcement, despite the vice presidency being a predominantly ceremonial position. India’s VP does preside over the upper house of parliament, the Rajya Sabha, and from this position can occasionally play a political role.
The big news here is that India even has a vice president.
India is run by the prime minister, the head of government. There is a president who does the symbolic duties of head of state. Many countries have this model, such as Israel, Germany, Ireland, and Italy (and probably others farther down the alphabet). There are also constitutional monarchies where the monarch is head of state, and the prime minister holds the real power. There are also the semi-presidential systems, most notably France, where the president is head of state but has real power and shares it with the prime minister.
The big question here is, with a symbolic head of state president, why also have a vice president? Why was the position created, what do they do? How many other countries have a similar role? Research is needed.
Lieutenant Governors Going to Meetings… with Each Other
The National Lieutenant Governors Association (which is very much a real thing) had its annual meeting and named its officers for the upcoming year. These includes hometown favorite, MD Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller, who will serve on the Executive Committee.
For Veepologists, there is lots of interesting info on the NLGA website. But honestly, the whole thing has a bit of a “yearbook committee” vibe (although so does a lot of politics, really.) As the website notes, 16 current governors were NLGA as are seven U.S. Senators. You can think of the NLGA, and similar organizations as a political soft power. It smooths the way for cooperation and builds low-key working relationships.
We’re interested in Lieutenant Governors for the same reason we are interested in VPs, they are a unique candle to illuminate political decision-making and operations.
Vance 1: What Does J.D. Stand For
My good friend Amy Sliva1 is knowledgeable on many, many things and pointed me to podcaster Jon Lovett’s running feature: What does the J.D. really stand for?
So many great entries, I think my favorite is Jefferson Davis Vance.
BTW – it’s actually James David… boring!
Vance 2: What Does VP Vance Stand For
There have been several articles outlining Vance’s efforts and challenges advancing Trump’s priorities. He is selling the budget bill to Trump’s blue-collar base, defending the administration’s stonewalling the release of the Epstein files, and defending the decision to bomb Iran. Previously, Vance was a big advocate for releasing the Epstein files and an avowed opponent of U.S. engagement in foreign adventures. The budget bill has all sorts of elements that he had previously opposed.
In other news, water is wet.
For any VP, loyalty is the name of the game. If the VP wants to have influence or be granted interesting and relevant portfolios, they must have a good relationship with the president. Part of that is advancing the president’s agenda. Out and out breaks with the president, or even hints that there is daylight between the president and vice president, will be used against an administration. It is unlikely this turmoil will work out in the VP’s favor. Tremendous public loyalty to the president is SOP for any Veep. For a VP under Trump, who demands absolutely loyalty from everyone he works with, this is exponentially true.
A VP can say they weren’t involved with a decision, as Quayle did about Bush 41’s budget plan and tax increases. But that diminishes the VP by making it plain that they aren’t in the loop.
The biggest recent President-VP break in recent history was Pence on certifying the election. Pence did the right thing, but breaking with Trump has hardly been a boon for Pence’s career.
More interesting on this front was New York Times columnist, Jamelle Bouie writing about JD Vance’s screed against the American Creed. His analysis tracks my own but is, of course, far more eloquent.
What caught my eye was his statement that Vance seems shut out of normal VP duties. Trump takes on all the symbolic/head of state type duties that typically occupy the VP. Vance hasn’t been granted any major portfolios. Bouie also states the Vance is obviously not in Trump’s inner circle, which appears to be dominated by Stephen Miller.
This is why, Bouie writes, that Vance has so much time to post on social media and trying and play intellectual. On the first point, shitposting is fundamental to governing in our times. On the second point, Vance is trying to build his own political future and there are precedents.
But to Bouie’s point, is Vance part of the administration’s decision-making?
All Vice Presidents are cautious about letting their influence be known. If they are known to take positions, then observers can keep score of when they win and lose. Influential VPs follow the wisdom of one of the earliest influential Veeps, Martin Van Buren who, “rowed to his object with muffled oars.”
Secondly, it is unlikely that any vice president will effectively influence Trump, who primarily takes his own counsel.
Third, JD Vance is a political outsider and Trump is now an insider. Trump has far more confidence in his ability to be president, has attracted a coterie of loyal staffers, and therefore has less need to rely on a VP. Further, Vance only has four years in the Senate and has little advice on the nuts and bolts of governing to offer Trump (even if Trump were receptive.)
Still, there are a number of points where Vance appears to play a role. Vance worked with Susan Wiles (the White House chief of staff) to dial down the feud with Elon Musk. Wiles, like a good chief of staff, also doesn’t make much news. That doesn’t mean she isn’t influential and Vance seems to have a good working relationship with her.
Vance’s national security advisor, Andy Baker, is now Deputy National Security Advisor. With Rubio dual-hatted, his deputies, by necessity, are playing larger roles.
JD Vance is talented and hard-working. But if he has shown one, truly exceptional talent, it is ingratiating himself to mentors including Peter Thiel, Amy Chua, and even David Frum. There is every reason to think he can do the same with Donald Trump.
I’ve co-authored many computer science articles with Professor Sliva, she’s fantastic and available for consulting work on AI, cybersecurity, and data science.