Impeach the Veep...in the Philippines?

Throwback Thursday

Three months ago, after the Sara Duterte, Vice President of the Philippines said she had arranged for the assassination of the President Bong-Bong Marcos of the Philippines, I posted this analysis of the situation and the institution of the vice presidency in the Philippines. A month ago, the Philippines House of Representatives impeached the vice president, so I thought it was a good time to re-post.

There is a lot going on in the Philippines (here’s a good overview). The Senate President said the Duterte trial will not occur until July. Between then and now, there will be Senate elections, 12 of the 24 Senators are up. Right now, impeaching Duterte is possible, but not easy. The new Senate could be different. Sara Duterte clearly plans to run for president in 2028, when Marcos’ single permitted term will be up. If she is impeached she will not be eligible for office. But, enough Senators may decide to hitch their wagons to Duterte, looking for favors should she become president.

And for some good background on the origins of the family politics and endemic corruption that dominate the Philippines, read this informative article. Also, don’t forget, that the Philippines is a hotspot as China flexes its muscles in the region.

(Many thanks to the able assistance of Aiden Ryan, a University of Maryland student who has volunteered to help me with my vice presidential research this semester. This will not be their only appearance in Down the Hall.)

Meanwhile, I’m still struggling to finish my take on JD Vance’s visit to Munich. Hopefully it’ll be out tomorrow morning. It’s not a hot take, it’s deeper than that, because there is something profound going on.

Some smaller items for my devoted readers. I’ve gotten a bit of press. I talked to Agence France Presse about Vance’s role in the ambush of Zelensky at the White House last week. Also, Reb Brownell, another Veepologist, cited my work in a recent column in the Baltimore Sun.

Also, in business news, Goldman Sachs is laying off a bunch of vice presidents, I’d be happy to chat with them if they want some post-Veep career advice.

Finally, I’m considering, perhaps mid-March, doing a Zoom talk on the Vance Vice Presidency. Let me know if you’d be interested! And don’t forget to give me some likes in Substack, it helps to attract additional readers.

Philippines VP plots to assassinate Bongbong

A Window into the Politics of the Philippines

As you can see from my recent Throwback Thursday post, I’m something of an expert on assassination attempts on vice presidents, but assassinations by vice presidents is uncharted territory. Examining this story, from an academic standpoint, shows how studying the vice presidency can be a window into a nation’s politics.

Vice President Duterte is doing helpful background reading.

Background: Philippine Politics are a Family Feud

Duterte and Marcos have had a political falling out. The Philippines are under heavy pressure by China and Marcos is allying with the United States. Duterte prefers China. But policy is only a piece of what’s going on.

Duterte is the daughter of the last president, Rodrigo Duterte (who carried out a brutal crackdown on drug dealers). Marcos, known by his nickname Bongbong, is named for his father, the long-time Filipino dictator. His mother is renown shoe-collector Imelda Marcos. Rodrigo Duterte’s predecessor was Benigno Aquino III, son of former president Corazon Aquino. Corazon was the wife of democracy activist and Marcos Sr. opponent Sen. Benigno Aquino Jr. who Marcos had assassinated in 1983. Before Aquino III came President Macpagal-Arroyo, who was the daughter of Diosdado Macpagal (who had been president from 1961-1965.)

Filipino politics is very much a family affair. I won’t claim any expertise, but it looks like beneath the Democratic veneer, there are feudal structures shaping Filipino politics, which is dominated by wealthy landholding families.

The Duterte-Marcos alliance was one of convenience. Running against each other for the presidency would have opened the door to a third candidate. It worked, they were elected with almost 59% of the vote. The president and vice president are elected separately, and this was the first time the two were from the same ticket since democracy was re-established in the Philippines (after Marcos Sr. fled in 1986.)

Presidents are limited to a single term, so Duterte taking the second slot puts her in good shape for the presidency in 2028.

Marcos, however, quickly set about sidelining his VP, presumably to set up one of his allies for 2028 (maybe his wife, Liza Araneta Marcos, a member of yet another prominent political family). In the Philippines, the VP can hold a cabinet position, Duterte hoped for a big one like defense. Marcos gave her education. Marcos also started talking about rejoining the International Criminal Court, which had issued an indictment against her father over extra-judicial killings during his time in office. Marcos allies in Congress cut the budget of the Office of the Vice President. Also, cabinet secretaries get slush funds, but Congress began investigating Duterte’s use of them. Congress detained Duterte’s chief of staff, who testified about the use of these funds.

Also, the Duterte’s appear to be linked to Apollo Quiboloy, a pastor and sex trafficker who is on the FBI’s most wanted list.

This sets the stage for Sara Duterte’s threat against the president. She also threatened to unearth the corpse of the president’s father and spread the remains in the ocean. Her father called on the military to act (which is a big deal in a nation that has seen its share of military coups.)

The Philippines legislature has been making moves towards impeachment, but they may not be able to pull it off. Duterte has plenty of supporters.

While Duterte may be awful, Marcos is no choir-boy. His father governed the Philippines for two decades that were replete with large-scale kleptocracy and human rights violations. It was the height of the Cold War and Marcos père cracked down on Communists (and many others) and the U.S. viewed him as “our S.O.B.” His son may be playing the same game, only with China, rather than Russia. Bongbong and his mom (still alive at 95 and buying shoes) face arrest in the U.S. for failing to pay a court ordered settlement to victims of the elder Marcos’ dictatorship. As long as he’s president however, Marcos Jr. is covered by diplomatic immunity.

Implications

Midterms are coming in May 2025, and this president-VP battle will dominate the elections. There is quite a bit at stake since the Philippines remains an impoverished and corrupt country. Although it isn’t clear that anyone in the political class is inclined to address this.

The Philippines, a U.S. ally, are also under constant pressure from China. It is a major flashpoint of sub-lethal violence as the Chinese Coast Guard regularly harasses Filipino vessels to enforce its claim to control the South China Sea. Given Duterte’s friendliness to China, the President-VP conflict has geopolitical implications.

Common sense says that someone who appears as unhinged as Sara Duterte would find her public career ending. But the past decade should put lie to any such notions. This conflict may rebound to her benefit. The people of the Philippines have every reason to be suspicious of their political class in general and of Marcos in particular. Marcos’ tack towards the U.S. probably also arouses suspicion, given American support for his father and the long and not terribly positive U.S. colonial governance of the archipelago.

One commentator says that the Filipinos love an underdog. Falling out with the elites and using crude language may make Duterte more appealing to voters. (It seems to work everywhere, doesn’t it?)

Institutional Analysis

The original sin, if you will, that creates at best useless and at worst antagonistic vice presidents, is electing them separately from the president. This dynamic undermines the potential of presidents and vice presidents collaborating and instead creates the conditions for rivalry. The single-term limit on Filipino VPs makes this worse. The VP, like the president, has been successful at getting votes nationally and has every incentive to burnish their reputation at the president’s expense. The president, OTOH, has little reason to bring the VP into the fold. There is no inherent trust between them.

This is even reflected by geography. The Office of the Vice President is a 40-minute drive (at best) from the Office of the President. On getting an office in the West Wing, Vice President Mondale never went to his ceremonial office in the next building, saying if he was there, “he might as well be in Baltimore.” Being on the other side of a city, the VP of the Philippines might as well be on another continent (which might be what the president really wants.)

In theory, granting the VP a prominent cabinet portfolio could help, but the president has their own coterie of allies to service. Giving a major portfolio to someone you cannot fire and don’t necessarily trust is not a smart play. You give such a figure a minor post, or one that will be a burden and likely embarrass them.

So the Vice President of the Philippines doesn’t have much to do (as is pretty evident from the OVP-P’s website—although the job openings are interesting) and has six years to plot their own run for office.

Does this matter? In the grand scheme of things, probably not. In the U.S. it is different because of the global responsibilities of the president—we don’t want a repeat of the situation of Harry Truman who came into office unaware of critical issues like the development of the atomic bomb or the status of FDR’s negotiations with Stalin. Still, a central premise of my research is that being a top leader is hard and having a loyal and experienced junior partner can be a great asset. We are facing difficult times all over the world. Leaders need all the help they can get, but in the Philippines the institutions—the rules of the game—seem structured to make things worse.