Democratic 2028 Veepstakes

Is this take too early, or is it too late?

Like many of our nation’s governors, I have been to South Carolina a couple of times this summer. On my visits, I enjoyed the beautiful and thought-provoking exhibits at the International African American Museum.

The governors had other priorities.

That’s right, the 2028 presidential election is only three years away and that means the 2028 Veepstakes are on! And here at Down the Hall, we are ready with takes.

Here’s a pic from my last visit to the IAAM. Or would you rather see some governor at a community center in East Bishopsford or at a fish-fry with Rep. Jim Clyburn?) This work by Annie Greene is entitled “Yarn” because it is made of yarn glued to watercolor paper. Oil painting is the long-reigning king two-dimensional art. But as I delve into art, I am increasingly fascinated as artists use different materials to achieve striking effects.

In this post we’ll look at the Democrats. Next week we’ll look at the Republicans. BTW, this post was inspired by my thoughtful son. He actually has far more practical experience in politics than I do!

Bottom-line, for the Democrats: look at purple state Senators. Common-sense perhaps, but common-sense is often wrong. Read on to see how we examine and test this intuitive conclusion.

By the Numbers

The go-to resource on running mates is Devine and Kopko’s Do Running Mates Matter? The authors do quantitative research on the effect of running mates on a ticket. In general, the VP pick doesn’t matter much. It does usually garner the ticket a few percentage points in the running mate’s home state. This can make all the difference in a close election. A particularly strong pick (the best recent example was John Edwards, who ran with John Kerry in 2004) can help a bit across the board. But finding a running mate that charismatic is rare. Another good pick is one that reassures key constituencies. Mike Pence, for example, reassured evangelical voters about Trump in 2016. The most important factor in choosing a running mate is to do no harm. The choice of running mate is the candidate’s first major decision. A sober pick of someone who seems “presidential” sends an important message to voters about the candidate’s seriousness and decision-making.

The single most important factor in choosing a running mate is who is on top of the ticket. There is simply no way this can be known. I would hazard that in a crowded field (likely) Kamala Harris, if she runs, will probably win since she comes in with strong name recognition. If the field is smaller, a challenger to Harris could emerge. If she doesn’t run; all bets are off.

Still, there are a few things we can say about Democratic Vice Presidents which indicate the probable pools of likely running mates.

Running Mate’s Probable Orientation

The first frame of analysis is whether or not the running mate will come from the moderate or progressive wing of the party. In many cases the actual difference between these two positions within the party are small, it will be a matter of perception. The GOP will portray anyone on the ticket as a radical socialist. Within the party, strident progressives will insist that anyone who doesn’t agree with their 181-point agenda is an Imperialist neolib shill.

Julia Azari and William Adler won the 2021 Founder’s Best Paper Award from the American Political Science Association for their paper: “The Party Decides (Who the Vice President Will Be)”. Long and short, in recent years the Democrats look for ideological balance, but in general the running mate is perceived as more conservative than the nominee.¹

The practicalities of running mate selection conveniently lend themselves to 2x2 table.

The most likely scenario is a moderate running mate. This has lots of advantages in terms of appealing to centrists and swing voters, while shutting down Republican lines of attack.² If we then look at the major source for Democratic running mates; we can see a list of probable running mates emerge.

Always Bet on (Senate) Purple

Most Democratic VPs come from the Senate. Going back to FDR putting Truman on the 1944 ticket, over the course of 18 selections of a running mate, only 2.5 running mates have not come from the Senate. The exceptions would Rep. Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Gov. Tim Walz in 2024. The .5 is 1972 when McGovern originally selected Sen. Thomas Eagleton, but dropped him from the ticket and replaced him with R. Sargent Shriver.³

If the most likely pick is a moderate Senator, it makes sense to look at the Democratic Senators from purple states. This chart handicaps.

A few quick notes. With only four electoral votes, Nevada Senators are not likely picks. Wisconsin has more electoral votes, but age is not on Tammy Baldwin’s side. One doesn’t want to be discriminate based on age, but after 12 years of Trump and Biden, voters may not want any more hoary retreads. If the nominee is a young, seemingly less experienced nominee emerges, Baldwin could be seen as a sober choice.

If Ossoff wins big in his 2026 re-election bid he could be a very attractive pick, but he might develop presidential ambitions of his own. If he could also lose.

The Democratic Senate leadership hates this list. They need these seats to have any chance of winning control of the Senate. They might prefer a Senator from a safer seat, or better yet, a governor from a state with a Democratic Lt. Governor.

There is no iron law that the pick has to be a Senator from a purple state. There are a number of blue-state Senators, governors, representatives, and others who might be considered for VP. Presidential primaries have become a way for politicians (and others) to raise their profile for other positions. Pete Buttigieg in 2020 is a perfect example.

Naming Names

The 2028 presidential election is over three years away. Three years is a long time and a very short time. All sorts of confounding events could create new dynamics including the 2026 midterms, the possibility of a recession, or the administration bobbling or brilliantly managing a crisis (it could happen).

Right now, we can only identify more and less likely probabilities that the running mate, based on historical patterns and general trends, will probably fall within certain categories. But, this is the age of Trump. We have twice elected a reality TV star and failed steak salesman—so nothing is completely off the table.

You’ve read all this way, you want a name. Ruben Gallego, Senator from Arizona. He’s a perfect VP. His time in the Senate is short, but he’s been in Congress for a decade. He’s young, a Veteran, Latino, and strong on border security. Of course, Gallego is looking at the top office himself.

I’m not saying it will be Gallego. But if someone offers you 1000 to 1 odds on Ruben Gallego as VP, take it.

1. We’ll talk about the GOP next week, but the GOP also tends to go for a more conservative running mate to reassure the party faithful. What that means for JD Vance, I cannot imagine.

2. A critical aspect of political calculation is how far you can push your own supporters, while expanding your coalition to include others. Under this logic, an all moderate ticket will reach out to centrists. Progressive votes won’t matter much since the blue states are a lock, and hard-line progressive votes in battleground states are negligible. Will this strategy work? Who knows?

3. Initially McGovern chose Missouri Senator Thomas Eagleton. It came out that Eagleton had been hospitalized for depression and undergone electroshock therapy. He was dumped and McGovern quickly replaced Eagleton with R. Sargent Shriver of Maryland, brother-in-law to JFK, founder of the Peace Corps, and Ambassador to France. McGovern lost to Nixon in a blow-out. It is unlikely that this was due to the running mate issues, but it sure didn’t help. Running-mate vetting has become far more comprehensive since.