A Team of Rivals... for VP Vance

The 2028 race has begun

Quick note, I am in vacation in Italy. I’m in northern Italy, so it is a bit cold, but still delightful. Last night I visited the Fondazione Accorsi-Ometta, which is hosting a fantastic exhibit on Italian painter Giorgio de Chirico (my favorite) and his work inspiring the surrealist movement. Many of the paintings were from private collections, so cannot be seen otherwise. In Milan we saw an exhibit of art confiscated from crime lords—they have surprisingly good taste. Both raise the question of how much wonderful art is out there and won’t ever be seen beyond a handful of people.

All of this is to say that posting on vice presidents will be a bit light right now…

Trump’s cabinet is full of presidential aspirants, and a big one will join if (as the rumor mill reports) Peter Hegseth withdraws as nominee for SecDef and is replaced by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He’ll join his fellow Florida man and presidential aspirant Marco Rubio in the cabinet. Other presidential aspirants in the cabinet or close to the White House include Secretary of Interior and former North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, prospective HHS Secretary RFK Jr., and DOGE co-chair Vivek Ramaswamy. Other figures haven’t run for president yet, but potential DHS Secretary Kristi Noem probably envisions herself in the Oval.

With Trump term-limited (and whatever his ambitions, changing this wouldn’t be easy), the 2028 presidential race has already begun. Where does this Team of Rivals leave the obvious heir apparent, J.D. Vance?

Background on the Team of Rivals Concept

In Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln, Doris Kearns Goodwin describes how Lincoln recruited a cabinet of political giants who helped make him a great president. Three of the major figures in Lincoln’s cabinet had been major presidential aspirants in their own right (Seward, Chase, and Bates). While they were all able men, Lincoln was truly the giant among them.

Lincoln’s cabinet: the true Team of Rivals

American politics worked differently in 1860, politics was driven heavily by patronage. Being a skilled operator of this political machinery was critical to anyone in politics and was a primary reason for appointing someone to the cabinet. Also, given the topic of this publication, at the time the vice presidency was seen as a legislative role and Vice President Hannibal Hamlin was, at best, a minor figure in the administration (although a very worthy man.)

Goodwin’s book came out in 2006. Obama, a relative political neophyte, elected because of public anger about two unpopular wars and the massive economic meltdown of 2008, used the term to establish his administration’s legitimacy. Besides VP Biden, Obama appointed his rival for the Democratic nomination Hillary Clinton to Secretary of State and kept GOP-appointed Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on the job.

This may have been good PR, but the cabinet as a body doesn’t matter that much anymore. Major decisions are centralized in the White House, with White House staff being the power players in the administration. This is a process that goes back to FDR and the Brownlow Committee.

Trump’s Gang of Pretenders

None of Trump’s team are fit to intern for the original Team of Rivals. William Seward, for example, was a political giant in his time and one of the figures who built the GOP around defeating slavery. Salmon Chase went from Treasury to Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (Lincoln put him there because Chase kept plotting a run for the presidency.)

Also, Trump isn’t particularly interested in a team of rivals. He is interested in loyalty and people who won’t be a problem for him. This is really true of all presidents, Trump is sort of a human Eigenvector. He has the same characteristics of regular people, but drilled down, just a few of these attributes really drive his overall vector.

Many of these figures will spend their time in office maneuvering to burnish their standing: with donors, Trump’s base, and the broader public. None of this will be easy. Cabinet office has not been a strong launching pad for the presidency for the last two centuries. In the early days of the Republic when Secretaries of State were the presumed successor. Since then only William Howard Taft (Secretary of War) and Herbert Hoover (Secretary of Commerce) were subsequently elected to the presidency—although former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came awfully close!

But politicians are what they are and several of Trump’s cabinet picks will be striving to keep options open.

Advance Against Vance

Today, the VP is the obvious successor to the president. Trump’s base clearly likes Vance. The potential cabinet rivals are only threats if Trump’s presidency fails spectacularly. A reasonably successful Trump presidency means it will be hard to challenge Vance for the nomination, unless Vance himself proves inept as VP or loses Trump’s favor. While his rollout was poor, Vance has gotten better on the campaign trail and at politics in general. Vance has also displayed a talent for ingratiating himself with mentors, but in this case the mentor ran a reality show that pit contestants against one another to win his favor. Should that happen, there are other aspirants who have been studying what will please The Donald.

Vance will need to watch administration decision-making carefully to ensure he isn’t maneuvered into lousy assignments or awkward situations by these other aspirants, particularly given Trump’s mercurial style.

Nonetheless, the biggest danger for Vance is if Trump does poorly as president. Vance would still have the advantage with Trump’s base, but he’d probably lose the general. As we just saw, a vice president running to succeed the president will be tagged with the president’s policy failures. In that case, could a clever Rubio or Desantis, pick-up support from donors and mount a challenge? Could they carefully distance themselves to keep the Trump base happy but demonstrate their viability to a broader constituency?

Vivek Ramaswamy is an interesting wildcard. He has no real position, so he is free to say or do anything he wants. Ramaswamy is an extraordinary salesman. He is also shameless. So anything seems possible for him.

Looking to 2028, Vance has the inside track. But Trump is unpredictable and the race could change in an instant. If (when?) that happens, Vance best watch his back. Several other members of the team will have been saving energy for a sudden sprint.