A Tale of Two JD Vances
Our Veep's Dickensian Moment
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
Dickens’ evocative opening to A Tale of Two Cities applies to our time as well—but right now it especially applies to Vice President J.D. Vance. For a newsletter about VPs, we haven’t written much on Vance lately and a deep look at what Vance is up to well overdue.
The Best of Times…Insider Influence
The recent White House chief of staff Susie Wiles profile in Vanity Fair, and other reports, cite Vance as being in the inner circle of Trump’s White House. This is not something VPs can take for granted. Even VPs who were considered influential often felt left out. The obvious rival for Vance is Marco Rubio, who is also a telegenic politician. But Vance and Rubio have developed a strong working relationship. Other signs of Vance’s stature include the rise of some of his allies. Vance’s national security advisor, Andy Baker, moved from the Office of the Vice President to the National Security Council, where he is now Rubio’s deputy. Vance’s law school buddy Dan Driscoll, Secretary of the Army, is playing an expanded role, getting involved in the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This is far beyond the usual remit of a service secretary and highlights how informal connections trump formal roles in this administration.
The inside game is paying off. While Trump hasn’t endorsed Vance, he has definitely spoken well of him. Rubio, his most likely rival, has pledged his support (maybe setting himself up as VP.)
J.D. Vance is at least in a position to influence policy—and on a VP’s Christmas list influence is towards the top. Trump is a fickle figure, but Vance has stayed in his good graces.
Someone is on Santa’s nice list.
Wiles said a lot of other stuff in her interviews, and it’s sparked a lot of discussion.1 The most notable items about VP Vance were that Wiles described his conversion to Trump supporter as “sort of political” and that the VP has been, “a conspiracy theorist for a decade.” Normally, calling someone a conspiracy theorist is not a compliment. But in today’s GOP, not being a conspiracy theorist is a political vulnerability.
The Worst of Times… Nazi Bullshit
The first post-Charlie Kirk Turning Point USA AmericaFest should have been—mostly—about anointing Kirk’s widow Erika the MAGA-queen and J.D. Vance as Trump’s heir apparent. Instead it was about whether Nazi-sympathizing Nick Fuentes and his “Groypers” have a place in the MAGA coalition.2 Many of the convention speakers readily condemned Fuentes, who wasn’t present, and his enablers, like Tucker Carlson, who was also a speaker.3 Vance took a more conciliatory approach calling for a “big tent” with room for the Reich-curious. Vance stated:
President Trump did not build the greatest coalition in politics by running his supporters through endless, self-defeating purity tests.
It doesn’t seem like a complicated ideological purity test to declare: No Nazi bullshit.4
Articles from CNN’s Aaron Blake and The Atlantic’s Franklin Foer really show describe how Vance managed to shrink to the occasion.
If you’ve got Nazi bullshit in your stockings, you are probably on Santa’s naughty list.
For all the drama at Turning Point USA, most of the attendees thought this was silly inside baseball stuff. The support for Vance as heir apparent was overwhelming and most attendees seemed to think the fighting about Fuentes and other GOP conspiracy theorists is a distraction from organizing, winning elections, and advancing MAGA.
But the Nazi bullshit is starting to cause cracks in the MAGA coalition. Texas Senator Ted Cruz is toying with a presidential run, categorically rejecting rejecting anti-Semitism, and wooing the big donors horrified by this creepy MAGA underbelly.5
At the Heritage Foundation, the intellectual center of MAGA world, these divides have led to a major exodus of scholars to former VP Mike Pence’s think tank Advancing American Freedom (AAF).6
None of this may matter… much. Vance could still have the standing to sail to the GOP nomination given his high name recognition and Trump’s endorsement. But a lot can happen between now and the 2028 election primaries.
But there is another problem. MAGA is not delivering. Trump’s popularity remains low and the continuing popular frustration with the economy—broadly dubbed affordability—have not responded favorably to administration policies so far. This is not an inside baseball political problem that pundits (like yours truly) get worked up over. This is the kitchen table issue.
Vance does not want to be dealing with Nazi bullshit (which I think most Americans find repellent) and intraparty troubles when facing a serious national problem. So far Vance’s countermove, both on affordability and anti-Semitism, has been to blame immigrants. Not sure the American people will buy this. It’s double-edged sword. There are legitimate arguments for reducing immigration to the United States. But a vocal component of the people most animated by immigration issues are racists who also get into… Nazi bullshit.
When there’s Nazis, it’s the worst of times.
The biggest question is: Why on earth would you say these things “on the record?” The most likely answer is that Wiles is so used to journalists protecting her to maintain access that she got sloppy. Given her criticisms of so many of the administration’s actions and members, she could be distancing herself from an administration that is going to implode. The fact that the administration has done so many things of which she doesn’t approve does raise questions about Wiles’ influence.
There is a growing GOP split over Israel. I’m an unabashed Zionist, but I can certainly understand adjusting the U.S.-Israeli relationship. Unfortunately, as soon as you start having a serious conversation on U.S.-Israel relations, anti-Semites show-up.
I won’t get into it, but Fuentes has insulted Second Lady Usha Vance and condemns mixed-race couples. Vance said Fuentes can “eat shit.” It’s a whole thing.
I find myself watching this video a couple times a week.
This would be the second time I find myself supportive of Cruz as the much lesser of two evils. Back in 2016, I wrote that I would take Cruz over Trump any day because: My fear with Trump is that if frustrated with Congress, he will summon a mob.
A fun VP angle that may be worth further exploration.
Very interesting piece Aaron. Add to the fact that it's not exactly beyond the bound of possibility that in 2028, the VP may have actually become President - and then it would be even more remote that the GOP would not have him as their Standard bearer.
I would guess that the only way Vance is not the GOP Presidential nominee in 2028 would be if Donald Trump didn't want him and actively made that clear. (if only DT could get a family member as the nominee). Or the country was in such chaos and GOP was in such disrepute that their only chance of political survival was with someone else heading the ticket. Even then would be super hard not to have Vance.