A Sorting Hat for National Security Advisors
Throwback Thursday and Veeply Round-up
The National Security Advisor is in the news, what with the unceremonious (and not unexpected) firing of Michael Waltz, and his replacement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who will also continue in that role, as well as Archivist of the U.S. and Administrator of USAID.) As it happens, yours truly, when not writing about vice presidents, teaches a class at the University of Maryland about American Foreign Policy Process, with a focus on the evolution of the National Security Advisor (NSA).
So below, is a fun piece about the different approaches to being NSA, through a fun pop-culture lens. (That’s two pop-culture hits in a row.)
But first, it’s time for…
Veeply Roundup
Former vice president Mike Pence received the JFK Freedom Award from that president’s library. Whatever his flaws, Mike Pence rose to the occasion on January 6, 2021 and will have that badge of honor for the rest of his days. Pence is the first vice president so honored—as vice president. (George H.W. Bush received the award as well, but not for his service as Veep.) I’ve written before that when the VP’s purely ceremonial functions take on real world significance, things are in a bad way.
An interesting note about VP Vance. Vance’s half-brother Cory Bowman ran for mayor of Cincinnati. Like most cities, Cincinnati is very blue and the incumbent mayor was very popular, so Bowman was crushed. It also doesn’t look like Bowman was trying really hard—did he really want to be mayor? Our new political-media ecosystem means that with a bit of a public profile and links to more renown figures one can raise a lot of money for hopeless political quests. This goes for both parties (looking at you Amy McGrath), or become an influencer/podcaster, etc. Is it all just a grift?
On the international front, the war between President Ferdinand “Bong-Bong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte of the Philippines continues. On May 12 that nation will hold its mid-terms which will determine control of the Senate. In July the impeachment hearings for VP Duterte will begin. She’s being impeached for saying she would have the President, his wife, and the Speaker of the House killed if she were murdered. The mid-terms could determine whether or not Duterte is impeached and removed from office. So this story is developing.
Finally, in local news, the first declared GOP gubernatorial candidate announced his running mate. John Myrick is hoping to take on Governor Wes Moore in 2026 and will be running with former Delegate Brenda Thiam. Myrick stated:
I cannot govern the state by myself. Unlike the current governor, I knew we needed a lieutenant governor who was the most qualified, best person for the job — not just somebody who can stand there and look cute. That’s what he’s got. That’s unacceptable.
A governor actively seeking to make their Lt. Governor a true governing partner (that’s a lot of “govern” for one sentence) is very interesting, we’ve written on it before. OTOH, I’m not sure it’s fair to characterize Lt. Gov Miller’s role is strictly arm candy. She’s a skilled politician who has, given the modest role of the position, done some valuable policy work.
A Sorting Hat for National Security Advisors
This post originally appeared on February 5, 2023.
In an attempt to keep my class on American Foreign Policy Process relevant to the youths, I ask them to apply a sorting hat to National Security Advisors. The sorting hat is the magical device from the world of Harry Potter that tells wizards arriving at Hogwarts which House suits them. I blatantly stole the idea from this awesome article in War on the Rocks that applies the Harry Potter lens to the Department of Defense and compares the military services to the different Houses of Hogwarts.
I realize that, first, JK Rowling is being cancelled, but my students grew up on Harry Potter so this still works. Second, Harry Potter will not be current soon and I’ll need to find a newer pop culture reference to make this work. In class, when I compared Obama to Spock and the students looked at me quizzically, I died a little inside.
Each House at Hogwarts reveres a particular virtue. Gryffindor, home of the main characters in the Harry Potter books, admires bravery. Hufflepuff is loyal. Ravenclaw is smart and Slytherin is ambitious. We face some analytical problems applying the sorting hat to National Security Advisors (NSAs).
Really, there’s an analytical problem in using a device from a fantasy series for children to understand the role of the top national security staffer to the president of the United States?
Actually, there are two problems. First, each House has its virtues, and every national security advisor must possess a measure of these virtues. Every NSA is very smart, must be loyal to the president (or they’ll get fired), must be ambitious (how else do you get a top White House job), and has to be brave (at least brave enough to stand up to the various formidable figures at the top of our nation’s political hierarchy).
But there’s another problem. Although the Harry Potter series heroes were from Gryffindor, there isn’t a self-evidently best house, but there is a generally regarded “best” approach to being NSA.
To make this little thought experiment work, we’re arbitrarily determining that Ravenclaw are the NSAs who followed the Scowcroft model. They weren’t necessarily the smartest people to hold the role, but the coordinator first, advisor second is the smartest way to play being NSA. It actually improves your status as an advisor if both the president and the other players don’t think you are manipulating the process in your own favor. Besides Scowcroft himself, examples would include pre-Scowcroft NSAs Goodpaster, Bundy, Carlucci, and Powell. More recent NSAs including Hadley, Donilon, Susan Rice, and now, by most accounts, Jake Sullivan are also acolytes of the Scowcroft process (if not his policy).
Given that there is, in this case, a “best” house, here is how we’ll make the sorting hat fit. Every virtue has its opposite vice. Gryffindor is about bravery and glory. Hufflepuff is about loyalty. Ravenclaw is about brains. And Slytherin is about ambition.
Of course, NSAs are loyal, but are they loyal to a fault in which they don’t tell presidents what they need to hear, implementing decisions that are unwise and not properly vetted. That could be Walt Rostow and his full-throated advocacy of Vietnam or Condoleezza Rice who similarly became the administration’s spokesperson for the war in Iraq. They, perhaps along with Reagan’s first two NSAs Dick Allen and William Clark, were the Hufflepuff National Security Advisors.
Bravery is good, but glory-seeking is unwise for a staffer. Looking at you Brzezinski and MacFarlane, both of whom, in the shadow of Kissinger’s public triumphs, sought to emulate them. Obama’s first NSA, General Jim Jones, who saw himself in a Secretary of State type role, joins them as Gryffindor National Security Advisors.
Ambition is not a bad thing, but too much leads to deviousness. If Kissinger was the archetype of the Slytherin NSA, but so was Admiral Poindexter who keeping his own counsel, operating in the shadows, ran a secret operation out of the White House.
Sorting the Trump NSAs
Trump had four National Security Advisors. It seems that each one sorts at least somewhat neatly into a different house. HR McMaster sought to run a normal NSA process (to limited success), that makes him a bit of Ravenclaw. Bolton, in his incredibly candid memoirs, outlines how he maneuvered around the president to shape policy – very Slytherin. Flynn, who loved the spotlight, relishing speaking at rallies, was a bit of a Gryffindor. Finally, O’Brien, who frankly had a thin resume for NSA, was a Hufflepuff, seeking to carry out presidential orders.
All in good fun, but things are never neat. Maybe Flynn was the loyal Hufflepuff, remaining close to Trump even after being fired. O’Brien carefully positioned himself to become NSA from the less than prominent Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs. O’Brien made a point of attending the trial in Sweden of rapper ASAP Rocky, at the president’s instruction, supposedly under his mandate to assist unjustly detained Americans. Defense Secretary Esper posited that O’Brien was plotting to take his job. So maybe he was more Slytherin than Hufflepuff.
This problem extends to previous NSAs as well. If there is a lesson to be drawn from this fun little exercise, perhaps it is that for NSAs, each virtue in moderation lest it become a vice.
As always, this post represents my views only and does not reflect the views or positions of any organization with which I am affiliated or ever have been affiliated.